militarnyi.com
Silfio country intelligence · SWE
Sweden
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
10.6M
GDP
$669B
Currency
SEK
Capital
Stockholm
Land area
450.3K km²
Official languages
Swedish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Sweden is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Sweden’s strong institutions, high state capacity, prosperous economy, and long record without armed conflict on its territory provide substantial protection against civil conflict, insurgency, coups, or an externally imposed war.
Recent reporting shows Sweden extradited 52-year-old Russian national Alexandr Suvorov to the United States over alleged illegal transfers of American microelectronics to Russia in sanctions circumvention. The case highlights Sweden’s exposure to Russia-related security and espionage concerns, but it also shows effective judicial and law-enforcement cooperation rather than violence on Swedish territory. No prediction market was found for Sweden.
The largest uncertainty is whether wider tensions involving Russia, NATO, sabotage networks, or other hostile actors could generate a direct armed incident inside Sweden. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed armed attack, sustained politically motivated violence, or an organised domestic armed movement; it would be reinforced at its current minimal level by continued institutional resilience, allied deterrence, and the absence of sustained armed clashes.
Strategic reasoning
- Sweden’s high-capacity state, stable political institutions, and extended period without domestic armed conflict make mobilisation into civil war, insurgency, or a coup highly unlikely.
- Russia-related security concerns are the clearest external pressure, but the reported extradition demonstrates functioning legal cooperation and does not constitute a new armed conflict on Swedish territory.
Critical indicators
- In October 2026, Sweden extradited Russian citizen Alexandr Suvorov, 52, to the United States over alleged unlawful supply of American microelectronics to Russia. The case reflects sanctions-enforcement and counterintelligence tensions, not armed violence in Sweden.
- Sweden’s established history of territorial peace and absence of sustained domestic armed conflict remain important context for the live probability, while NATO membership and allied security cooperation strengthen deterrence against an interstate attack.
Probability trend
How the Sweden estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Sweden.
Regional context
Sweden compared with its neighbours and region
Sweden ranks number 150 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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