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Silfio country intelligence · SWE
Sweden
0.3% annual probability
Population
10.6M
GDP
$669B
Currency
SEK
Capital
Stockholm
Land area
450.3K km²
Official languages
Swedish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Swedish territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Sweden’s strong institutions, high state capacity, stable economy, and effective security services support resilience, while its long period without war on its territory is an important counterweight to conflict onset.
Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific armed-conflict development involving Sweden, and no prediction market is available. Sweden’s principal external security concern remains Russia, while domestic political institutions and law-enforcement agencies provide substantial capacity to deter and contain armed threats before they become sustained conflict.
The largest uncertainty is whether a major deterioration in European security could generate direct pressure on Swedish territory, rather than remaining confined to fighting elsewhere. A Russian attack affecting Sweden, or sustained armed violence between Swedish domestic actors, would raise risk; continued territorial security, institutional stability, and containment of isolated incidents would support the minimal classification.
Strategic reasoning
- Sweden’s long peace, capable institutions, prosperous economy, and effective security apparatus make sustained domestic armed conflict difficult to initiate and maintain.
- Sweden’s NATO membership since 7 March 2024 places it within a stronger collective-defence framework, although heightened regional tensions could still create an external pathway to conflict on Swedish territory.
- The assessment concerns a new conflict onset in Sweden, not Swedish military activity abroad or fighting already occurring elsewhere in Europe.
Critical indicators
- On 7 March 2024, Sweden formally joined NATO, strengthening its security guarantees and integrating it into allied defence planning.
- Sweden’s established record of avoiding war on its own territory remains relevant to the live probability, supporting the view that isolated security incidents would be unlikely to develop into sustained armed conflict.
Probability trend
How the Sweden estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Sweden compared with its neighbours and region
Sweden ranks number 149 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.euronews.com