Silfio country intelligence · FIN
Finland
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.65M
GDP
$317.04B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Helsinki
Land area
338.42K km²
Official languages
Finnish, Swedish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Finland’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security forces, and the absence of a recent domestic armed-conflict tradition support resilience. Finland’s difficult wartime history, especially the 1939–40 Winter War and later conflicts with the Soviet Union, remains relevant mainly because it keeps national defence and territorial security central to state policy.
Recent reporting supplied identifies no armed incident on Finnish territory and no sustained violence between domestic actors. Finland’s principal external security concern is Russia, while NATO and the European Union provide important political, military, and economic backing; Finland joined NATO on 4 April 2023. No prediction market was found for Finland.
The largest uncertainty is whether broader Russia–NATO confrontation could produce a deliberate or accidental attack reaching Finnish territory. A confirmed cross-border strike, invasion attempt, or sustained armed domestic mobilisation would raise risk; continued NATO deterrence, allied coordination, and the absence of organised armed challengers would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Finland’s strong institutions, capable defence forces, social cohesion, and recent history of avoiding internal armed conflict make a new domestic conflict onset unlikely, while its border with Russia remains the principal exposure.
- NATO membership strengthens deterrence and raises the expected costs of aggression. The relevant risk is a new conflict on Finnish territory, not Finland’s participation in security operations or any fighting occurring abroad.
Critical indicators
- On 4 April 2023, Finland became a NATO member, placing its territorial defence under the Alliance’s collective-defence framework and strengthening deterrence against Russia.
- Finland’s 1939–40 Winter War and subsequent wartime experience continue to shape high defence preparedness and public attention to territorial security, without constituting a current conflict onset.
Probability trend
How the Finland estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Finland.
Regional context
Finland compared with its neighbours and region
Finland ranks number 160 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
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