Latvia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Latvia is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Latvia has strong democratic institutions, substantial economic capacity, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence. Its principal long-run vulnerability is geographic proximity to Russia and Belarus, alongside the unresolved security consequences of Russia’s occupation and control of the wider Baltic region during the twentieth century. NATO membership and allied presence provide significant deterrence.

Recent reporting shows heightened political and military friction with Russia, but no armed attack on Latvian territory. Latvia and Lithuania are considering restrictions on Russian grain transit through their ports after Moscow redirected exports toward the Baltic, while NATO’s multinational brigade began the Oak Projection exercise and Latvia held Namejs 2026 drills involving national and allied commanders. Russia, NATO, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia are the principal relevant actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether the war around Ukraine generates deliberate or accidental spillover into the Baltic area. A confirmed Russian attack, serious cross-border incident, or sustained armed activity involving Latvian territory would raise risk; continued allied exercises, effective deterrence, and management of trade disputes without military escalation would support the minimal-risk assessment.