Ireland

Ireland faces a 0.2% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, a minimal risk. Strong institutions, high state capacity, and the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement have greatly reduced the likelihood of renewed organised violence after decades of Troubles-related conflict. Ireland’s lack of recent interstate war and generally stable political system further support this assessment.

Recent reporting highlights security vulnerabilities rather than active violence. A September 2026 analysis points to low defence spending and reliance on Britain for security, while the Russian embassy has accused Dublin of repeating EU and German claims concerning the Leipzig drone attack. The principal relevant actors are the Irish Government, Britain and European partners, alongside Russia as a source of diplomatic tension; none is reported to be conducting armed operations on Irish territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether external confrontation or a serious breakdown in Northern Ireland’s political settlement could generate sustained domestic violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed attacks or persistent communal violence in Ireland or Northern Ireland; continued institutional cooperation, stable cross-border relations and diplomacy would support the minimal assessment.