Lithuania

Lithuania faces a 0.3% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, a minimal risk. The country’s NATO membership, strong institutions, growing defence capacity, and the presence of allied forces provide major deterrence. Its history of occupation by the Soviet Union and proximity to Russia and Belarus nevertheless leave it exposed to coercion and possible military miscalculation.

Recent reporting shows heightened pressure below the threshold of war. Lithuanian authorities said on 18 October that they had prevented an attempted arson attack at a facility storing Starlink equipment and that Russia was likely responsible. Unidentified-drone incidents prompted air alerts in Lithuania and Latvia, allied aircraft were scrambled, and Lithuania issued a red-level warning in parts of the country. Russia, Lithuania, NATO, and Ukraine-linked infrastructure are the principal actors in this confrontation.

The largest uncertainty is whether sabotage and airspace incidents remain deniable, isolated activity or develop into a deliberate attack causing casualties or territorial damage. A confirmed Russian strike, repeated incursions, or a major incident involving NATO forces would raise risk; sustained investigation, effective deterrence, and no further attacks would lower it.