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Silfio country intelligence

Monaco

Low risk1.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Monaco flag

Monaco facts

Population

38.34K

GDP

$11.13B

Currency

EUR

Capital

Monaco

Land area

2.02 km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Monaco

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.5%

Model base probability

0.7%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for armed conflict onset in Monaco, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news reports document a serious bomb attack in Monaco targeting a Ukrainian tycoon, Vadym Yermolaiev, with injuries to him and family members, indicating a rare violent incident on Monaco’s soil.
  • The attack appears politically motivated, with accusations against Ukrainian intelligence, suggesting potential for further politically driven violence or retaliatory acts.
  • While this is a targeted terrorist/assassination attempt rather than a broad armed conflict or insurgency, it raises the risk environment above the structural baseline, which is very low.

Critical indicators

  • June 29, 2026 parcel bomb attack in Monaco injuring Ukrainian tycoon Vadym Yermolaiev and family.
  • Public release of video evidence by Ukrainian prosecutors and accusations against Kyiv’s military intelligence agency.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Monaco

Updated July 20, 2026

telegraph.co.uk · 2 days ago

Video shows bomb attack on Ukrainian tycoon in Monaco

Attacker seen dropping a backpack full of explosives on steps of Vadym Iermolaiev’s home

Read source

apnews.com · 1 day ago

Ukrainian prosecutors release video of the Monaco bombing that injured a tycoon

Ukrainian prosecutors have released video of a bombing in Monaco that seriously injured tycoon Vadym Yermolaiev and his family.

Read source

dailymail.com · 3 days ago

Ukrainian oligarch accuses Kyiv's spy agency of trying to kill him after Monaco bomb attack blew off his partner's legs and injured son | Daily Mail Online

The Ukrainian property tycoon who was targeted in a bombing in Monaco has accused Kyiv 's military intelligence agency of being responsible for the attack.

Read source