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Silfio country intelligence · AND
Andorra
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
82.9K
GDP
$4.5B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Andorra la Vella
Land area
468 km²
Official languages
Catalan
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Andorra is 0.1%, a minimal risk. Andorra has no modern record of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate fighting on its territory. Its small, affluent economy, effective institutions, and close integration with France and Spain provide strong buffers against organised armed violence.
Recent reporting identifies no conflict-related mobilisation, domestic armed movement, or external military pressure involving Andorra. The country's constitutional co-principality, shared by France's president and the bishop of Urgell, provides an established framework for sovereignty and security, while France and Spain remain the principal neighbouring actors.
The main uncertainty is the possibility of an unforeseen political or security shock, although no current indicator points to one. Risk would rise most clearly if armed violence, a serious institutional breakdown, or a hostile cross-border incident reached Andorran territory; sustained political stability and continued security cooperation would support the minimal assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Andorra's absence of a modern armed-conflict history, high institutional capacity, and dependence on peaceful relations with France and Spain make domestic mobilisation or external attack exceptionally difficult.
- No current reporting indicates an armed group, coup threat, interstate dispute, or military deployment directed at Andorra. Fighting involving Andorran citizens or forces abroad would not itself constitute a new onset on its territory.
Critical indicators
- In 1993, Andorra adopted its modern constitution, formalising the co-principality and strengthening representative institutions after centuries of externally shared sovereignty.
- No prediction market or recent conflict-related development is available for Andorra; the country's established record of peaceful governance and its security ties with France and Spain remain the relevant context for the live assessment.
Probability trend
How the Andorra estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Andorra.
Regional context
Andorra compared with its neighbours and region
Andorra ranks number 181 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Southern Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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