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Silfio country intelligence

Andorra

Minimal risk0.8% annual probabilitystable trend
Andorra flag

Andorra facts

Population

82.9K

GDP

$4.5B

Currency

EUR

Capital

Andorra la Vella

Land area

468 km²

Official languages

Catalan

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Andorra

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.8%

Model base probability

0.8%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Andorra, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • The news overwhelmingly focuses on escalating conflict and internal political instability in Iran, with no direct or indirect indication of conflict risk spreading to Andorra.
  • Andorra is a small, stable European microstate with no historical ties or geographic proximity to the Iran-US conflict or Middle East tensions.
  • No reports suggest any internal unrest, insurgency, or external threats involving Andorra.

Critical indicators

  • Renewed US-Iran military conflict and internal Iranian political divisions with hardliners accusing leadership of a coup.
  • US naval blockade and strikes in the Middle East region escalating tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Andorra

Updated July 20, 2026

livemint.com · 18 hours ago

As war with US escalates, hardliners accuse top leadership of planning a ‘coup’ against Khamenei | Today News

Iran is reportedly facing growing internal divisions as hardliners accuse senior officials of plotting a ‘coup’ after negotiating a ceasefire with the US. The political rift comes as the truce has collapsed and fighting with the US and Israel has resumed

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

Read source

cnn.com · 2 days ago

Iran’s hardliners warn of a ‘coup’ as US truce comes under pressure | CNN

Hardline factions in Iran believe that instead of avenging the late supreme leader’s killing, Iranian officials have surrendered by signing an agreement with the US.

Read source