Andorra

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Andorra is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict, while its small, prosperous economy and stable constitutional institutions support peaceful political competition.

Recent reporting provides no identified armed-group mobilisation, domestic security crisis, or interstate confrontation involving Andorra. The principal external actors, France and Spain, are guarantor powers and close partners rather than plausible aggressors; Andorra’s limited security capacity is offset by its diplomatic and economic integration with both neighbours.

The main uncertainty is whether an unexpected political or security shock could disrupt the country’s unusually stable environment. Risk would rise most clearly if sustained armed violence, an attempted violent seizure of power, or a serious breakdown in relations with France or Spain emerged; continued institutional stability and cooperative relations would support the minimal-risk assessment.