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Silfio country intelligence · MRT
Mauritania
3.6% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.32M
GDP
$11.68B
Currency
MRU
Capital
Nouakchott
Land area
1.03M km²
Official languages
Arabic
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability is 3.6%, representing a moderate risk. Mauritania’s history of military coups, including in 2005 and 2008, reflects recurring political fragility, while limited economic capacity, poverty, and difficult governance across a large territory constrain resilience. Its location beside Mali and the wider Central Sahel also exposes it to spillover from jihadist and communal conflicts.
Recent reporting in the Europe Says assessment, covering the Central Sahel, highlights jihadist fragmentation, migration pressure, military access, and competition involving Russia and Türkiye across Libya, Mauritania, and coastal West Africa. These are regional pressures rather than evidence of fighting already occurring in Mauritania, but they identify the principal external environment relevant to possible spillover. No prediction market was identified.
The largest uncertainty is whether violence and militant activity in neighbouring Mali could overcome Mauritania’s border controls and security arrangements, or whether political disruption could create an opening for armed mobilisation. Risk would rise following a cross-border militant attack, sustained infiltration, or a new coup-related confrontation; it would be lower if Mauritania maintained internal political stability and kept Sahelian violence from reaching its territory.
Strategic reasoning
- Mauritania’s record of coups in 2005 and 2008, combined with constrained state capacity and exposure to Sahel insecurity, supports a persistent though bounded risk of internal armed violence or an externally driven onset.
- The strongest current signal is the regional jihadist and geopolitical pressure described in the Central Sahel assessment. Mauritania’s continued ability to contain spillover is the key stabilising factor, and fighting elsewhere does not itself constitute a new conflict onset inside Mauritania.
Critical indicators
- The Europe Says assessment published in 2026 discusses jihadist fragmentation, migration pressure, military access, and Russian and Turkish competition involving Mauritania and the wider Central Sahel. Its significance is that regional insecurity could create channels for militant spillover or political pressure.
- Mauritania’s military coups in 2005 and 2008 remain relevant country history. They show that disputes involving the security establishment can produce abrupt political crises, even though those past events are not themselves a new conflict during the assessment period.
Probability trend
How the Mauritania estimate has moved
Probability3.6%3.6%3.6%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Mauritania.
Regional context
Mauritania compared with its neighbours and region
Mauritania ranks number 66 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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