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Silfio country intelligence

Mauritania

High risk6.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Mauritania flag

Mauritania facts

Population

5.32M

GDP

$11.68B

Currency

MRU

Capital

Nouakchott

Land area

1.03M km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Mauritania

NEWS

Conflict probability

6.5%

Model base probability

4.8%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Mauritania armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news indicates a significant escalation of armed conflict in the Middle East, especially involving Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, and US forces, with attacks and retaliations ongoing.
  • While Mauritania is geographically distant from the Persian Gulf and Middle East conflict zones, regional instability can have spillover effects in the broader Sahel and West African region through proxy conflicts, arms flows, and militant group opportunism.
  • The heightened global geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices reflect increased risk appetite for conflict escalation worldwide, which structurally tends to increase the risk of new conflict onsets even in relatively stable countries.

Critical indicators

  • Iran’s attacks on Kuwait’s power and desalination plants and subsequent US-Iran military escalations in the Gulf region.
  • Rising geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets and renewed military conflict between US and Iran.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Mauritania

Updated July 20, 2026

cnbc.com · 3 days ago

Oil prices rise after Kuwait says Iran attacked water desalination and power plant

Oil prices rose Friday after Kuwait said Iran attacked a power and water desalination plant as fighting escalated in the Persian Gulf · Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, advanced about 4.6% to close at $88.10 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained ...

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asiatimes.com · 20 hours ago

A blockade at Hormuz, a crisis for all humanity - Asia Times

The current architecture of international relations faces a profound, non-linear crisis that extends far beyond the traditional boundaries of regional

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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