Mauritania

Mauritania’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 3.8%, a moderate risk. The country has a history of coups and political instability, including military takeovers in 1978, 1984, and 2008, while its position between the Western Sahara, Mali, and the wider Sahel exposes it to regional insecurity. Limited state capacity and difficult border management remain relevant vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting highlights closer security cooperation between Mauritania and Morocco as extremist violence, trafficking networks, and migration pressures intensify across the Sahel. The principal risks would involve jihadist or criminal networks operating near Mauritania’s borders, particularly amid instability in Mali and the wider region. No prediction market was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether violence and illicit networks in neighbouring states can overcome Mauritania’s comparatively effective security controls and political containment. A cross-border militant attack, sustained armed infiltration, or domestic military-political rupture would raise risk; stronger Mauritania-Morocco coordination and continued exclusion of militant groups from Mauritanian territory would lower it.