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Silfio country intelligence

Ivory Coast

Moderate risk4.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Ivory Coast flag

Ivory Coast facts

Population

32.71M

GDP

$99.77B

Currency

XOF

Capital

Yamoussoukro

Land area

322.46K km²

Official languages

French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Ivory Coast

NEWS

Conflict probability

4%

Model base probability

3.6%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Ivory Coast armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news highlights escalating global geopolitical tensions, particularly in maritime chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea), and regional conflicts involving Iran, US, Israel, and others, but none directly implicate Ivory Coast or West Africa.
  • No reports of internal unrest, insurgency, coup attempts, or interstate threats in Ivory Coast or immediate neighbors in the news sample.
  • However, the global environment of increased conflict risk and instability, including proxy conflicts and economic disruptions, raises general risk levels for fragile states like Ivory Coast.

Critical indicators

  • 2026 Gulf War and related regional escalations in the Middle East.
  • Ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in key maritime routes affecting global trade and economic stability.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Ivory Coast

Updated July 27, 2026

azernews.az · 20 hours ago

War risks transform maritime insurance into barrier to global trade

Historically, maritime insurance operated quietly in the background lika a modest line item ensuring that if a storm hit or a rare misfortune occurred, trade kept moving. Today, however, escalating geopolitical tensions, targeted drone strikes, and state-backed blockades are fundamentally ...

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thequeenzone.com · 2 days ago

13 ways war, sanctions, and isolation can devastate an economy - The Queen Zone

When conflict breaks out, or diplomatic doors slam shut, ordinary families end up paying the ultimate price. Factories freeze,...

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unz.com · 3 days ago

Prevent the Great War, by Israel Shamir - The Unz Review

A couple of weeks ago, in Ankara, the capital of Turkey, there was a NATO conference that sought yet more rearmament and militarization, steps that must inevitably lead to a new Great War. As an answer to this NATO conference, 200 ministers, members of parliament, ambassadors, politicians, ...

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