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Silfio country intelligence · CIV
Ivory Coast
5.6% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
32.71M
GDP
$99.77B
Currency
XOF
Capital
Yamoussoukro
Land area
322.46K km²
Official languages
French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Ivory Coast is 5.6%, representing a high risk. The country’s history includes civil war from 2002 to 2011 and severe post-election violence in 2010–11, while political divisions, regional inequalities, and the presence of armed networks leave identifiable pathways to renewed violence.
Recent reporting supplied for 30 September 2026 contains no specific conflict development or prediction-market signal. The principal actors relevant to any deterioration would be the government and security forces, opposition networks, communal or regional armed groups, and—if violence spilled across borders—militants operating in the wider Sahel and Gulf of Guinea region.
The largest uncertainty is whether political competition and local grievances remain manageable through institutions rather than becoming organised violence. Risk would rise most clearly through major election-related unrest, security-force defections, communal attacks, or cross-border militant incidents reaching Ivorian territory; credible political accommodation, effective security control, and peaceful dispute resolution would support lower risk.
Strategic reasoning
- Civil war and repeated election-related violence show that political disputes in Ivory Coast have previously escalated into sustained armed conflict, making elite competition and institutional stress important watch points.
- No specific current escalation is identified in the supplied reporting, while the absence of a prediction market leaves the country’s established conflict history and regional exposure as the main contextual drivers.
- The assessment concerns a new conflict on Ivorian territory, not Ivorian forces operating abroad or violence already occurring in neighbouring states.
Critical indicators
- 2002–2011: Ivory Coast experienced a civil war and prolonged territorial division between government-held south and rebel-held north, demonstrating the capacity of political and regional grievances to generate organised armed conflict.
- 2010–11: A disputed presidential election was followed by months of armed post-election violence, in which competing political camps and security actors fought across the country.
- 2020: Election-related unrest again produced deadly clashes, underscoring the continuing sensitivity of electoral contests even after the civil war period ended.
Probability trend
How the Ivory Coast estimate has moved
Probability5.6%5.0%4.4%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Ivory Coast.
Regional context
Ivory Coast compared with its neighbours and region
Ivory Coast ranks number 53 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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