All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Sierra Leone

Moderate risk4.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Sierra Leone flag

Sierra Leone facts

Population

8.82M

GDP

$7.46B

Currency

SLL

Capital

Freetown

Land area

71.74K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Sierra Leone

NEWS

Conflict probability

4%

Model base probability

3.3%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Sierra Leone, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage shows no direct reports of new or escalating armed conflict or instability within Sierra Leone itself.
  • However, there is a report about displaced residents in Yenga, Sierra Leone, indicating ongoing local grievances and displacement, which could be a latent source of instability or conflict onset.
  • The broader regional and global context is highly unstable due to escalating US-Iran conflict, but this does not directly implicate Sierra Leone in new armed conflict risk.

Critical indicators

  • Displacement and grievances of Yenga residents in Sierra Leone indicating local instability potential.
  • No direct armed conflict onset or interstate aggression reported on Sierra Leone’s territory.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Sierra Leone

Updated July 20, 2026

therealmediang.com · 3 days ago

Jonathan Hails Sierra Leone’s Decision to Discontinue Criminal Proceedings Against Ex-President | Real Broadcasting Network

Former President Goodluck Jonathan has commended the decision of the Sierra Leone government to discontinue…

Read source

aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

Read source

edition.cnn.com · 2 days ago

Iran’s hardliners warn of a ‘coup’ as US truce comes under pressure | CNN

Hardline factions in Iran believe that instead of avenging the late supreme leader’s killing, Iranian officials have surrendered by signing an agreement with the US.

Read source