Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone faces a 3.1% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a moderate risk. The country’s long civil war ended in 2002, but its history includes military intervention, political violence, weak economic capacity, and institutional tensions that can make disputes destabilising when security forces or political elites become involved.

Recent reporting centres on former President Ernest Bai Koroma’s return to Freetown after more than two years in Nigeria. His return followed the withdrawal of treason charges connected to the failed November 2023 military uprising, with Nigeria facilitating the process. President Julius Maada Bio’s government, Koroma’s political network, and the armed forces remain the principal actors relevant to this episode.

The largest uncertainty is whether the dropped charges and Koroma’s return consolidate political accommodation or reopen unresolved disputes surrounding the 2023 coup attempt. Risk would rise if opposition mobilisation, military discontent, or violence accompanied renewed investigations; it would fall if Koroma’s reintegration proceeds peacefully and political competition remains within constitutional channels. No prediction market is available for Sierra Leone.