Silfio country intelligence · SLE
Sierra Leone
2.8% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
8.82M
GDP
$7.46B
Currency
SLL
Capital
Freetown
Land area
71.74K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Sierra Leone is 2.8%, representing a low risk. The country’s long-run risk is supported by the severe 1991–2002 civil war, persistent economic constraints, youth unemployment, and institutional fragility, although the post-war political order has generally contained disputes.
Recent reporting supplied for this assessment provides no specific indication of an imminent armed escalation involving the government, opposition groups, neighbouring states, or organised armed movements. Sierra Leone’s principal security concern remains the possibility that political contestation or economic grievances could become violent, rather than an evident interstate threat. No prediction market is available.
The largest uncertainty is whether future political or economic shocks could overwhelm established mediation and security institutions. Risk would rise if organised violence spread beyond isolated unrest, security forces fractured, or armed groups obtained sustained territorial control; it would fall with continued peaceful political competition, effective security-sector discipline, and credible management of economic grievances.
Strategic reasoning
- The 1991–2002 civil war demonstrates that severe institutional weakness and economic exclusion can permit organised domestic violence, while the durable post-war settlement and established political competition remain important stabilising factors.
- The main escalation pathway is a breakdown in political order or security-force cohesion; no supplied current reporting identifies such a breakdown, and no foreign armed actor is presently indicated as preparing an attack on Sierra Leonean territory.
- Fighting by Sierra Leonean personnel abroad would not constitute a new onset in Sierra Leone; the relevant risk is sustained armed violence physically within the country.
Critical indicators
- The civil war ended in January 2002 after more than a decade of fighting, leaving a significant historical basis for conflict risk but also a long-running national and international peacebuilding framework.
- On 26 November 2023, armed assailants attacked military and detention sites in Freetown in an attempted coup. The episode showed that political-security crises can generate organised violence on national territory, even though it did not develop into a new sustained conflict.
Probability trend
How the Sierra Leone estimate has moved
Probability2.8%2.8%2.8%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Sierra Leone.
Regional context
Sierra Leone compared with its neighbours and region
Sierra Leone ranks number 77 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
von.gov.ng