El Salvador

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in El Salvador is 1.4%, representing a low risk. The country’s history of civil war, entrenched political polarisation, organised-crime violence, and concentrated executive power support continued exposure, while stronger state capacity and the decline of gang violence reduce the likelihood of organised armed opposition reaching conflict scale.

Recent reporting provides no specific new escalation involving the Salvadoran state, opposition groups, gangs, or neighbouring countries. The principal relevant actors remain President Nayib Bukele’s government, security forces, criminal organisations, and political opponents; no prediction market is available for El Salvador. The existing security campaign is context for internal instability, but violence already suppressed or contained does not itself constitute a new onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether political repression, economic stress, or renewed gang mobilisation could combine into sustained armed resistance. Risk would rise most clearly if clashes between security forces and organised domestic groups became persistent and geographically broader; it would fall if the government maintained control while criminal violence remained contained and political disputes stayed non-violent.