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Silfio country intelligence

Panama

Low risk2.0% annual probabilityfalling trend
Panama flag

Panama facts

Population

4.57M

GDP

$90.46B

Currency

PAB

Capital

Panama City

Land area

75.42K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Panama

MARKET

Conflict probability

2%

Model base probability

0.5%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • The high-volume Polymarket prediction market on "US takes Panama Canal before 2027?" shows a 4.5% probability over about 5.5 months (from now until 2026-12-31). Annualizing this implies roughly a 9.8% probability over 12 months, which is significantly higher than the structural model's 0.5257%.
  • This market reflects strong crowd conviction ($112,841 volume) and is a direct signal of potential interstate conflict on Panama's soil, fully within scope.
  • News corroborates heightened regional tensions due to the ongoing US-Iran war and increased US military activity in Latin America (Operation Southern Spear), which could increase the risk of conflict spillover or US intervention in Panama.
  • Domestic news on corruption scandals (Operation Pandora) and political visits do not indicate imminent armed conflict onset but do not contradict elevated risk.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market showing 4.5% chance US takes Panama Canal before end of 2026.
  • US military escalation in Latin America via Operation Southern Spear amid US-Iran war.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Panama

Updated July 20, 2026

cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

Read source

theweek.in · 2 days ago

How the Panama Canal is cashing in on the West Asia conflict - The Week

As the US-Iran war makes shipping charges expensive, the Panama Canal is expected to gain more revenue

Read source

bbc.co.uk · 2 days ago

One anti-war critic fined, another held as Russia clamps down on dissent - BBC News

While Boris Nadezhdin is barred from running for parliament, blogger Ilya Remeslo is remanded in custody.

Read source