www.telerama.fr
Silfio country intelligence · PAN
Panama
0.4% annual probability
Population
4.57M
GDP
$90.46B
Currency
PAB
Capital
Panama City
Land area
75.42K km²
Official languages
Spanish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Panama’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.4%, a minimal risk. The country has strong economic capacity, comparatively durable democratic institutions, and no active insurgency or civil war. The 1989 US invasion remains a significant historical conflict episode, but Panama has since maintained internal stability and relies on civilian security institutions rather than competing armed forces.
Recent reporting supplied for 7 September 2026 contains no conflict-related development involving Panama, its government, domestic armed groups, or neighbouring states. The main external signal is a Polymarket contract on whether the United States will take the Panama Canal before 2027, implying 3.8% with 166,950 in volume; this is market context, not evidence of an armed attack or invasion.
The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis, security breakdown, or external dispute over the Canal could overcome Panama’s longstanding institutional and regional safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed mobilisation or an actual cross-border attack reaching Panamanian territory; continued civilian control, functioning institutions, and peaceful resolution of disputes would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Panama’s post-1989 record of civilian government and the absence of a standing military reduce the domestic capacity for a new insurgency, coup, or sustained armed confrontation.
- The principal escalatory possibility is an external crisis involving the Panama Canal, while the absence of reported armed mobilisation or active domestic conflict is a stabilising signal. Fighting by Panamanian personnel abroad would not itself constitute onset in Panama.
Critical indicators
- On 7 September 2026, the Polymarket contract on the United States taking the Panama Canal before 2027 implied a 3.8% probability, with 166,950 in volume. It signals that some market participants assign a non-zero possibility to a Canal dispute, but does not establish armed conflict on Panamanian territory.
- The 1989 United States invasion of Panama is the country’s defining recent interstate-conflict precedent. Its historical importance supports monitoring external security disputes, while the subsequent absence of an insurgency or civil war supports the current minimal classification.
Probability trend
How the Panama estimate has moved
Probability0.4%0.4%0.4%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Panama compared with its neighbours and region
Panama ranks number 145 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Central America
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage