All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Colombia

Moderate risk3.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Colombia flag

Colombia facts

Population

53.43M

GDP

$457.41B

Currency

COP

Capital

Bogotá

Land area

1.14M km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Colombia

MARKET

Conflict probability

3%

Model base probability

1.3%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market (Polymarket, $1,041,459 volume) shows a 17.0% probability of a US strike on Colombia by December 31, 2026, which is about 5.5 months away. Annualizing this 17% over 5.5 months to a 12-month horizon implies a significantly higher risk of US military action on Colombian soil, which qualifies as a new armed conflict onset under the scope.
  • The lower-volume market on a full US invasion in 2026 shows 4.5%, indicating some risk of interstate conflict but less likely than a strike. The strike market is more relevant and higher volume, so it dominates the adjustment.
  • News signals do not indicate any ongoing or imminent internal armed conflict or coup in Colombia, nor do they suggest a broader interstate war involving Colombia directly. The US-Colombia relationship appears stable with renewed cooperation, reducing the likelihood of internal conflict onset.
  • Given the structural model’s low baseline (1.3%) and the strong market signal of a near-term US strike (17% over ~5.5 months), a moderate upward adjustment to around 3% annualized probability is justified to reflect elevated risk of new armed conflict onset on Colombian territory.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market indicating 17% chance of US strike on Colombia by Dec 31, 2026
  • Renewed US-Colombia cooperation under new government, reducing internal conflict risk

Related coverage

Latest articles about Colombia

Updated July 20, 2026

xpert.digital · 3 days ago

Disaster meets coup: The dramatic US experiment in Venezuela threatens to fail

🛑 A dramatic US intervention and a devastating twin earthquake plunge Venezuela into a political and humanitarian crisis. 🌍 Washington now de facto controls oil revenues, thus pitting sovereignty against stability. ⛽ Access to the world's largest oil reserves is becoming a geopolitical ...

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

Read source

cnbc.com · 3 days ago

Oil prices rise after Kuwait says Iran attacked water desalination and power plant

Oil prices rose Friday after Kuwait said Iran attacked a power and water desalination plant as fighting escalated in the Persian Gulf · Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, advanced about 4.6% to close at $88.10 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained ...

Read source