Colombia

Colombia’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 1.6%, a low risk. The country’s long history of insurgency, including the FARC conflict and continuing activity by ELN remnants, FARC dissidents, and criminal groups, keeps the possibility of renewed nationwide escalation above minimal levels. Persistent rural insecurity, uneven state presence, and difficult peace implementation remain relevant background factors, although Colombia’s institutions, security capacity, and prior peace processes provide resilience.

Recent reporting has focused on diplomatic and cultural disputes rather than a new armed confrontation. Iran and 19 other governments condemned Colombia’s reported embassy opening in al-Quds, while a dispute over the removal of more than 30 artworks from the National Museum reflected domestic political polarisation. The principal security actors remain the Colombian state, ELN factions, FARC dissidents, and organised criminal groups; no supplied report describes a new cross-border attack or a newly formed internal war.

The largest uncertainty is whether political polarisation or external diplomatic friction could interact with Colombia’s established armed groups and local grievances. Risk would rise most clearly through sustained coordinated attacks, territorial expansion by the ELN or dissident factions, or an interstate strike reaching Colombian territory; continued containment of armed groups and functioning political channels would support the low-risk assessment.