Brazil

Brazil has a 3.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a moderate risk. The main supporting factors are intense political polarisation, the country’s large and heavily armed population, persistent organised-crime violence, and a recent history of serious confrontation between political factions. Brazil’s strong state capacity and established institutions nevertheless make sustained nationwide conflict less likely than isolated or short-lived violence.

Recent reporting highlights continuing political tension around the presidential contest. Opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro was reported visiting his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a sentence at home for an attempted coup. The principal actors are Brazil’s political factions, federal institutions, and organised-crime groups; no current report indicates an armed campaign seeking territorial control.

The largest uncertainty is whether electoral or judicial confrontation could mobilise sustained violence beyond demonstrations and isolated attacks. Risk would rise if political leaders rejected institutional outcomes, security forces fractured, or organised groups formed durable alliances with political actors. It would fall with broadly accepted electoral procedures, continued civilian control of the security forces, and effective containment of politically motivated violence.