theguardian.com
Silfio country intelligence · BRA
Brazil
2.9% annual probability
Population
212.81M
GDP
$2.28T
Currency
BRL
Capital
Brasília
Land area
8.52M km²
Official languages
Portuguese
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 2.9%, making Brazil a low risk. The level is supported by Brazil’s large economy, comparatively durable constitutional institutions, and history of political violence and military intervention, alongside persistent violence involving criminal groups and severe political polarisation. These factors create pathways to escalation, but do not currently indicate an imminent nationwide conflict.
Recent reporting highlights continuing institutional tension linked to the failed effort to overturn the 2022 election. Former Air Force chief Carlos de Almeida Baptista Júnior described his resistance to Jair Bolsonaro’s coup plan, while disputes between Supreme Court justices have deepened ahead of the election and a major bank investigation. The principal actors are Brazil’s elected government, Supreme Court, military leadership, and Bolsonaro-aligned political forces.
The largest uncertainty is whether institutional confrontation could prompt extra-constitutional action or organised violence, rather than remain within legal and political channels. Risk would rise through military or police defiance, coordinated armed mobilisation by political supporters, or violence surrounding the election; it would fall if courts, civilian authorities, and security institutions continue resolving disputes constitutionally.
Strategic reasoning
- Brazil’s history includes military rule, political crises, organised-crime violence, and recurrent tensions between civilian authorities and security forces. Its institutional capacity and the military’s reported refusal to support the 2022 coup plan remain important barriers to a new armed conflict.
- The Supreme Court confrontation and renewed disclosures about the Bolsonaro-era coup effort are the clearest escalatory signals, but they have not developed into sustained armed clashes on Brazilian territory.
- Constitutional continuity, functioning state institutions, and the absence of reported organised armed mobilisation are stabilising factors. Violence by criminal groups or political unrest would count toward new-onset risk only if it became sustained conflict between organised domestic actors.
Critical indicators
- On 5 September 2026, The Guardian reported former Air Force chief Carlos de Almeida Baptista Júnior’s account of resisting Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 coup plan. The disclosure underscores the seriousness of prior extra-constitutional pressure while also illustrating the military barrier that helped preserve civilian rule.
- On 4–6 September 2026, reporting by The Washington Post and the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette described a deepening dispute between Supreme Court justices, involving requests for major sanctions as an election and bank probe loom. The confrontation raises political tension but remains an institutional struggle rather than armed conflict.
Probability trend
How the Brazil estimate has moved
Probability2.9%2.8%2.8%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Brazil compared with its neighbours and region
Brazil ranks number 77 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
washingtonpost.com