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Silfio country intelligence

Guyana

Minimal risk0.9% annual probabilitystable trend
Guyana flag

Guyana facts

Population

835.99K

GDP

$27.1B

Currency

GYD

Capital

Georgetown

Land area

214.97K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Guyana

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.9%

Model base probability

0.8%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Guyana, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Regional instability is elevated due to escalating US-Iran conflict and geopolitical tensions in Latin America, which could indirectly increase risk of conflict spillover or opportunistic violence in nearby countries including Guyana.
  • Guyana’s foreign policy commentary highlights awareness of shifting alliances and regional volatility, suggesting some risk of diplomatic or security tensions rising.
  • No direct news indicates imminent armed conflict onset in Guyana, but the structural baseline is very low and the regional environment is more volatile than usual, warranting a modest upward adjustment.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran military strikes and retaliations in the Middle East, raising global geopolitical tensions.
  • Political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela with US intervention affecting regional stability.
  • Guyana’s public discourse on adapting foreign policy to shifting regional alliances and threats.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Guyana

Updated July 20, 2026

xpert.digital · 3 days ago

Disaster meets coup: The dramatic US experiment in Venezuela threatens to fail

🛑 A dramatic US intervention and a devastating twin earthquake plunge Venezuela into a political and humanitarian crisis. 🌍 Washington now de facto controls oil revenues, thus pitting sovereignty against stability. ⛽ Access to the world's largest oil reserves is becoming a geopolitical ...

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guampdn.com · 3 days ago

OPINION Lotz: Buildup embodies the future of our island | News | guampdn.com

We just missed commemorating a milestone of the military buildup of Guam which occurred on July 1, 2019 when Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero met with numerous residents of Guam who,

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kaieteurnewsonline.com · 3 days ago

National interest must guide Guyana's foreign policy - Kaieteur News

In the realm of international politics, there is no such thing as 'permanent' friends. Friendships change over time. Friend becomes enemies and vice-versa. The experience of Venezuela is a case in point. Today the United States has become a major strategic partner to Venezuela who not so long ...

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