Guyana

Guyana’s 0.3% 12-month probability represents a minimal risk of a new armed conflict on its territory. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained political violence, and its democratic institutions and expanding oil revenues provide significant state capacity. The longstanding border dispute with Venezuela remains a relevant external risk, but it has not produced armed conflict on Guyanese territory.

Recent reporting identifies Guyana’s agreement to accept migrants deported from the United States as a diplomatic and administrative development, not an armed escalation. Separate coverage of Guyana’s growing role in global oil supply highlights its economic importance, while no reported action by Venezuela, Guyanese authorities, or domestic armed groups indicates preparations for hostilities.

The main uncertainty is whether external pressure linked to the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute could shift from diplomatic confrontation to coercion or an incursion. Risk would rise most clearly with a Venezuelan military move near or across the border, or sustained domestic armed violence; continued institutional stability, effective border management, and peaceful diplomacy would support the minimal level.