Silfio country intelligence · GUY
Guyana
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
835.99K
GDP
$27.1B
Currency
GYD
Capital
Georgetown
Land area
214.97K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Guyana is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Guyana’s competitive political system, functioning state institutions, small population, and limited history of sustained internal armed violence support this low level, despite the country’s exposure to regional tensions.
The principal external concern is Venezuela’s longstanding claim to the Essequibo region, which covers much of Guyana’s territory. Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific dated incident indicating that Venezuelan forces or domestic armed groups have begun fighting on Guyanese territory; no prediction market is available.
The largest uncertainty is whether the Essequibo dispute could move from political and legal pressure to a cross-border military action. Risk would rise most clearly following an attempted occupation, border clash, or sustained armed mobilisation involving Venezuela; continued diplomacy, international legal processes, and Guyana’s institutional stability would support the minimal-risk assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Guyana has little established history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence, while its state institutions and political competition provide channels for managing internal disputes.
- Venezuela’s Essequibo claim is the principal escalation pathway, but fighting by Guyana’s forces abroad or political confrontation alone would not constitute a new conflict onset on Guyanese territory.
Critical indicators
- In 1899, an international tribunal awarded the Essequibo territory to British Guiana, establishing the historical basis of Guyana’s position in the dispute with Venezuela.
- In 2023, Venezuela held a referendum supporting its Essequibo claim, while the International Court of Justice had ordered the parties not to alter the territory’s status pending resolution; these developments increased diplomatic tension without constituting armed conflict on Guyanese territory.
Probability trend
How the Guyana estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Guyana.
Regional context
Guyana compared with its neighbours and region
Guyana ranks number 163 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
guyanatimesgy.com