Peru

Peru’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 2.2%, a low risk. The country has substantial economic capacity and state institutions, while the Shining Path insurgency was largely defeated decades ago and no comparable nationwide armed movement is active. Political crises and protests have produced serious violence, but they have generally remained episodic rather than becoming sustained insurgency or civil war.

Recent reporting highlights serious criminal-security pressures rather than organised political warfare. On Saturday, the government placed five high-security prisons under a 60-day state of emergency, allowing police and military control to counter criminal gangs. The principal actors are the Peruvian government, security forces, prison-based criminal networks, and private actors linked to strategic infrastructure such as Chancay Port.

The main uncertainty is whether prison and organised-crime violence could acquire territorial control, political aims, or sustained armed capacity. Risk would rise if gang violence spread into coordinated attacks on state institutions or combined with an organised insurgent movement; it would fall if the emergency restores prison control and courts and security agencies continue containing violence within criminal and localised channels.