Peru

Peru has a 2.0% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a low risk. The level reflects Peru’s comparatively capable state institutions and security forces, but also its history of internal conflict, including the Shining Path insurgency and recurrent episodes of politically driven violence.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an imminent insurgency, coup, invasion, or sustained armed confrontation on Peruvian territory. The principal domestic risks would involve security forces, political movements, criminal organisations, or radical remnants of earlier insurgencies; no neighbouring state or armed group is currently identified as preparing an attack on Peru.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis could turn prolonged protests or localised violence into organised armed conflict. Risk would rise if armed groups acquired broader territorial control, security-force defections occurred, or political unrest became sustained and coordinated. A durable political settlement, effective policing, and containment of criminal and insurgent activity would support the low-risk assessment.