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Silfio country intelligence

Peru

Low risk1.2% annual probabilitystable trend
Peru flag

Peru facts

Population

34.58M

GDP

$334.85B

Currency

PEN

Capital

Lima

Land area

1.29M km²

Official languages

Aymara, Quechua, Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Peru

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.2%

Model base probability

0.8%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for armed conflict onset in Peru, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news reports indicate a significant 5.1 magnitude earthquake in Peru’s central Junín region causing deaths, injuries, and displacement, which can increase social instability and strain government resources.
  • There is no direct evidence of armed conflict or imminent interstate aggression against Peru, but natural disasters often elevate the risk of internal unrest or opportunistic violence.
  • The structural model likely underestimates near-term risk due to its focus on long-run factors; the earthquake’s destabilizing effects justify a moderate upward adjustment.

Critical indicators

  • 5.1 magnitude earthquake in Peru’s central Junín region on 2026-07-18 causing at least six deaths and hundreds displaced.
  • No current armed conflict or interstate aggression reported on Peruvian territory.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Peru

Updated July 20, 2026

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

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independent.co.uk · 3 hours ago

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian oil depots hit after Putin launches ballistic missile attack on Kyiv | The Independent

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