Paraguay

Paraguay faces a 0.5% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a minimal risk. The country’s long experience with political order since the end of Alfredo Stroessner’s dictatorship in 1989, functioning state institutions, and limited history of sustained contemporary armed violence support this low level. The 1947 civil war and the dictatorship remain important reminders that political crises can become violent, but they are not current indicators of imminent conflict.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific development showing an interstate threat, a new domestic rebellion, or sustained armed mobilisation on Paraguayan territory. The main relevant actors would be the Paraguayan government and security forces, domestic political factions, criminal organisations, and the small remnants of insurgent groups historically active in rural areas. No prediction market was identified for Paraguay.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political rupture, major state-security breakdown, or rapid expansion of organised armed groups could overwhelm established restraints. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained clashes involving state forces and an organised domestic faction, or a cross-border attack reaching Paraguay; it would fall with continued institutional continuity and effective containment of criminal and insurgent violence.