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Silfio country intelligence

Venezuela

High risk6.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Venezuela flag

Venezuela facts

Population

28.52M

GDP

$99.66B

Currency

VES

Capital

Caracas

Land area

916.45K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Venezuela

MARKET

Conflict probability

6.5%

Model base probability

2.6%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • The Polymarket prediction market on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, shows a 5.5% probability over about 5.5 months (from now, July 20 to December 31). Annualizing this to 12 months roughly doubles the risk to about 12%, indicating a significant near-term elevated risk of interstate armed conflict onset.
  • The structural model baseline of ~2.6% is low and does not capture recent shocks; the market signal strongly suggests increased risk, warranting a substantial upward adjustment.
  • News corroborates a severe humanitarian and political crisis following twin earthquakes, with delayed military response and U.S. control over oil revenues, increasing instability and potential for conflict onset.
  • No evidence suggests an ongoing armed conflict that would invalidate this as a new onset risk; rather, the crisis and U.S. involvement heighten the chance of new conflict, including possible foreign intervention.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market indicating 5.5% chance of U.S. invasion by end of 2026 (high volume, near-term)
  • Twin earthquakes in Venezuela on June 24, 2026, causing massive casualties and overwhelming emergency response
  • U.S. de facto control over Venezuelan oil revenues amid political instability

Related coverage

Latest articles about Venezuela

Updated July 20, 2026

edition.cnn.com · 3 days ago

Trump is edging towards another American ‘forever war’ in Iran | CNN

It is the ultimate sanction. But somehow for President Donald Trump – who once sought a Nobel Peace Prize for ending wars – military force has become a casual measure, a kind of background effect used to cajole Iran into diplomacy.

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xpert.digital · 3 days ago

Disaster meets coup: The dramatic US experiment in Venezuela threatens to fail

🛑 A dramatic US intervention and a devastating twin earthquake plunge Venezuela into a political and humanitarian crisis. 🌍 Washington now de facto controls oil revenues, thus pitting sovereignty against stability. ⛽ Access to the world's largest oil reserves is becoming a geopolitical ...

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counterpunch.org · 3 days ago

Sovereignty: Jamaica, Cuba, Venezuela and Israel - CounterPunch.org

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) recently issued a memo which states: Cuba is not Venezuela. What does that mean? "The same people

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