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Silfio country intelligence · URY
Uruguay
0.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
3.38M
GDP
$85.35B
Currency
UYU
Capital
Montevideo
Land area
181.03K km²
Official languages
Spanish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Uruguay is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has a long record of territorial security, consolidated democratic institutions, and substantial state capacity. Its last major internal conflict ended decades ago, while political disputes have generally remained within electoral and legal channels.
Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific mobilisation, insurgent campaign, coup activity, or interstate confrontation involving Uruguay. The principal relevant actors are Uruguay’s civilian government, security institutions, political parties, and potential criminal networks; none is associated in the supplied material with sustained armed violence aimed at seizing power or territory. No prediction market is available for Uruguay.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen institutional rupture, severe political polarisation, or cross-border security crisis could rapidly change the country’s historically stable trajectory. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed attacks by domestic political actors, military intervention in politics, or a cross-border attack reaching Uruguayan territory; it would remain lower with continued civilian control, orderly elections, and containment of criminal violence through policing.
Strategic reasoning
- Uruguay’s last sustained internal armed conflict was the Tupamaros insurgency and the subsequent 1973–1985 military dictatorship. The long period since democratic restoration, together with strong institutions and no current armed political mobilisation in the supplied reporting, supports minimal onset risk.
- Criminal violence would not by itself constitute the target event unless it became sustained, organised armed conflict between domestic actors. Continued civilian control of the armed forces and established political channels are the clearest stabilising factors.
Critical indicators
- In 1973, Uruguay entered military rule after a period of political violence involving the Tupamaros insurgency; the dictatorship ended with democratic restoration in 1985. This history is relevant as a remote precedent, not evidence of a current armed-conflict onset.
- On 19 October 2026, no specific current news development or prediction-market signal was supplied indicating insurgent mobilisation, a coup, or an interstate threat reaching Uruguay. The live probability therefore remains supported primarily by the country’s long record of post-1985 political stability and territorial security.
Probability trend
How the Uruguay estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Uruguay.
Regional context
Uruguay compared with its neighbours and region
Uruguay ranks number 172 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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