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Silfio country intelligence

Uruguay

Low risk1.2% annual probabilityrising trend
Uruguay flag

Uruguay facts

Population

3.38M

GDP

$85.35B

Currency

UYU

Capital

Montevideo

Land area

181.03K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Uruguay

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.2%

Model base probability

0.6%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Uruguay armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news reports indicate a significant surge in violent crime in Uruguay, including 10 murders in one week, causing political pressure on the government and interior minister, which suggests rising internal instability and potential for escalation.
  • Although the violence reported is criminal rather than armed conflict per se, the sharp increase in violence and political pressure could increase the risk of domestic unrest or insurgency onset.
  • No indications of interstate conflict or foreign aggression against Uruguay were found in the news.

Critical indicators

  • Reported wave of violence in Uruguay with 10 murders in one week and political pressure on the interior minister (July 2026)
  • President’s public support for the interior minister amid rising crime concerns

Related coverage

Latest articles about Uruguay

Updated July 20, 2026

www.theguardian.com · 1 day ago

World Cup 2026 latest: Trump criticises Tuchel, buildup to France v England and Spain v Argentina final – as it happened | World Cup 2026 | The Guardian

Donald Trump criticised Thomas Tuchel for England’s semi-final loss

Read source

salon.com · 13 hours ago

Rubio goes to war against global justice

The secretary of state is using the right's long-standing hatred of the ICC to bolster his MAGA bona fides for 2028

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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