Uruguay

Uruguay’s 0.2% 12-month probability represents a minimal risk of a new armed conflict on its territory. The country has a long record of democratic governance, effective state institutions, high social stability, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate warfare. Its location between Argentina and Brazil, both with strong incentives to preserve regional stability, further limits the likelihood of an external attack.

Recent reporting provides no indication of mobilization, political violence, insurgent activity, or interstate confrontation involving Uruguay. Coverage instead highlights ordinary international engagement, including the national football team’s planned Asian tour, while a report on opposition to the US blockade of Cuba describes political and civic activity by Uruguayan organizations rather than armed mobilization.

The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen domestic political rupture, severe criminal-security crisis, or regional confrontation could create conditions for sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organized armed attacks, military intervention in politics, or cross-border fighting reaching Uruguay; it would remain lower if current institutional stability and peaceful regional relations continue.