Suriname

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Suriname is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has experienced serious political violence before, including the 1980 military coup and the 1986–1992 Interior War, but it has maintained domestic peace for more than three decades. Its small population, limited military capacity, and generally functioning political institutions also constrain the prospects for sustained armed mobilisation.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no specific indication of an emerging armed confrontation on Surinamese territory. The principal relevant actors are the civilian government, the armed forces, and political parties; none is currently associated with a reported insurgency, organised rebellion, or cross-border military threat to Suriname. No prediction market is available for this country.

The main uncertainty is whether severe economic or political discontent could generate a sharp institutional crisis, particularly given the country’s history of military intervention. Risk would rise most clearly with an attempted coup, organised armed mobilisation, or violent clashes involving security forces; continued peaceful transfers of power and the absence of organised armed groups would support the minimal risk assessment.