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Silfio country intelligence

Suriname

Minimal risk0.6% annual probabilitystable trend
Suriname flag

Suriname facts

Population

639.85K

GDP

$4.52B

Currency

SRD

Capital

Paramaribo

Land area

163.82K km²

Official languages

Dutch

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Suriname

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.6%

Model base probability

0.6%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Suriname, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news highlights intense regional and global geopolitical tensions, especially involving US-Iran conflict escalation and Middle East instability, but no direct or indirect indications of conflict risk spreading to Suriname or South America.
  • Suriname is geographically and politically distant from the hotspots of conflict (Middle East, Sudan), with no reported internal unrest or external threats in the news.
  • However, the global rise in geopolitical tensions and conflict risk generally increases the baseline risk of new armed conflicts worldwide, including in relatively stable countries, warranting a modest upward adjustment from the structural baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran military conflict with attacks in Kuwait, Jordan, and Iran’s southern coast.
  • Ongoing multi-year war and instability in Sudan with international concern over atrocities.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Suriname

Updated July 20, 2026

theworkersrights.com · 2 days ago

Sudan Regional Conflict: How Foreign Powers Shape Crisis!

Sudan regional conflict is shaped by competing foreign powers, influencing peace efforts, political stability and the country's future direction today.

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asiatimes.com · 20 hours ago

A blockade at Hormuz, a crisis for all humanity - Asia Times

The current architecture of international relations faces a profound, non-linear crisis that extends far beyond the traditional boundaries of regional

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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