Suriname

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Suriname is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has experienced political violence, including the 1980 military coup and the 1986–92 Interior War, but it has maintained competitive civilian politics and avoided renewed nationwide conflict for decades.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, a military challenge to civilian rule, or preparations by neighbouring states for an attack on Surinamese territory. The principal relevant actors are the Surinamese government, security forces, political parties, and small residual networks associated with past insurgent activity; none is identified as presently sustaining armed violence.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political or economic shock could revive dormant grievances or trigger security-force intervention. Risk would rise most clearly with an attempted coup, sustained armed clashes involving the government and an organised domestic group, or a credible cross-border attack; continued peaceful political competition and effective civilian control would support the current level.