Chile

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Chile is 0.4%, a minimal risk. Chile’s relatively strong state capacity, established institutions, and democratic political system support resilience, while its history of politically motivated violence and the 1973–1990 dictatorship remain relevant background factors.

Recent reporting shows that hundreds of protesters in Santiago clashed with police while condemning President José Antonio Kast’s security policies and comparing them with those of Augusto Pinochet. The incident indicates polarisation around policing and executive security policy, but the reported violence involved protesters and police rather than organised armed groups or an emerging insurgency.

The main uncertainty is whether confrontations over security policy could become sustained, organised political violence. Risk would rise if protests developed into coordinated armed attacks, armed-group mobilisation, or persistent violence across multiple regions; it would be reinforced downward by effective policing, political channels for contestation, and continued control by state institutions.