Chile

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Chile is 0.4%, representing a minimal risk. Chile has strong state capacity, established democratic institutions, and a history of peaceful political competition. Its most serious modern rupture was the 11 September 1973 military coup, while the democratic transition in 1990 and subsequent changes of government have generally reinforced institutional continuity.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific development indicating an imminent armed confrontation on Chilean territory. The principal relevant domestic actors are the central government, security forces, political parties, and groups involved in unrest in parts of the Araucanía region; none is identified here as preparing for sustained nationwide armed conflict. No external actor or neighbouring state is reported to pose a current territorial attack threat.

The largest uncertainty is whether localized political violence could become organized, sustained armed conflict, particularly if institutional trust deteriorates sharply or violence in the south broadens. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, armed-group expansion, or a breakdown of civilian control; it would remain contained if disputes continue to be managed through elections, policing, courts, and political negotiation.