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Silfio country intelligence

Chile

Minimal risk0.9% annual probabilitystable trend
Chile flag

Chile facts

Population

19.86M

GDP

$357.37B

Currency

CLP

Capital

Santiago

Land area

756.1K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Chile

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.9%

Model base probability

0.8%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Chile, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News indicates no direct or imminent armed conflict threats on Chilean soil; no reports of domestic unrest, insurgency, or foreign military threats against Chile.
  • Regional instability is elevated due to US-Iran conflict escalation and broader geopolitical tensions, which could indirectly increase risk in Latin America, including Chile, through spillover effects or shifts in alliances.
  • Chile’s internal situation appears stable, with cultural restoration projects and diplomatic engagement (e.g., India-Chile relations) suggesting no immediate internal conflict risk.

Critical indicators

  • US-Iran war escalation with strikes in the Middle East and increased geopolitical risk premiums globally.
  • Chile’s recovery of a historic mural symbolizing political memory, indicating domestic stability rather than unrest.
  • Strengthening India-Chile diplomatic and trade relations, suggesting stable governance and international cooperation.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Chile

Updated July 20, 2026

euronews.com · 3 days ago

CIA declassifies evidence of alleged Venezuelan election fraud in 2012 | Euronews

CIA documents declassified by Donald Trump confirm that the Venezuelan regime had, from 2012, a system capable of altering up to 1.5 million votes, though they do not prove fraud in every election mentioned.

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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timesofisrael.com · 2 days ago

Iran said to tell Hezbollah, allies to prepare for wider conflict, which could rope in Israel | The Times of Israel

8 reported killed in overnight US strikes on Iran; IRGC says it targeted US aircraft, radar systems in Jordan and Qatar; Kuwait says water plant hit, troops hurt in drone attacks

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