Bolivia

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Bolivia is 0.9%, representing a minimal risk. Bolivia has a history of political crises, coups, mass protest, and episodes of serious unrest, but these have generally stopped short of sustained civil war or insurgency. Its institutional fragility and recurrent political polarisation support some exposure, while the absence of a durable national armed movement keeps the risk below higher categories.

Recent reporting provides no indication of an organised insurgency, imminent coup, foreign military threat, or cross-border attack reaching Bolivian territory. The principal relevant actors are the government, opposition movements, security forces, and socially powerful unions and indigenous organisations; none is currently identified as conducting sustained armed operations. No prediction market for Bolivia was found.

The main uncertainty is whether a future political or economic shock could turn Bolivia’s established protest capacity into prolonged armed confrontation. Risk would rise if security-force defections, armed factional mobilisation, or repeated lethal clashes produced territorial control disputes; it would fall if political competition remains predominantly electoral and demonstrations remain organised around negotiation and non-armed pressure.