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Silfio country intelligence

Bolivia

Low risk1.1% annual probabilityfalling trend
Bolivia flag

Bolivia facts

Population

12.58M

GDP

$64.77B

Currency

BOB

Capital

Sucre

Land area

1.1M km²

Official languages

Aymara, Guaraní, Quechua, Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bolivia

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.1%

Model base probability

0.9%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Bolivia on armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news does not indicate any direct or imminent armed conflict onset in Bolivia itself; no reports of domestic unrest, insurgency, or foreign aggression targeting Bolivia.
  • Regional geopolitical tensions (notably US-Iran conflict) and economic challenges in Bolivia (state firm losses, pro-market reforms) may increase general instability risk modestly but do not translate into immediate armed conflict onset risk on Bolivian soil.
  • Structural model likely underestimates near-term risk slightly due to economic and political stress signals, so a modest upward adjustment is warranted.

Critical indicators

  • US-Iran military escalation raising global geopolitical risk premiums but no direct impact on Bolivia.
  • Bolivia’s state-owned enterprises suffering significant losses amid pro-market reforms, indicating internal economic stress.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bolivia

Updated July 20, 2026

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

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riotimesonline.com · 16 hours ago

US Backs Bolivia Investment Opening as State Firms Lose US$500M | The Rio Times

Washington welcomes Bolivia’s pro-market reforms while an internal report reveals 15 state-owned enterprises in critical condition with cumulative losses above US$500 million.

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