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Silfio country intelligence · ARG
Argentina
0.9% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
45.85M
GDP
$683.1B
Currency
ARS
Capital
Buenos Aires
Land area
2.78M km²
Official languages
Guaraní, Spanish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability is 0.9%, a minimal risk. Argentina’s large economy, established electoral institutions, and predominantly civilian political system reduce the likelihood that political or economic disputes develop into sustained armed violence on its territory. Its history includes the 1982 Falklands war, but that conflict ended decades ago and does not itself constitute a new-onset risk.
Recent reporting highlights renewed Argentine pressure over the Falkland Islands, including President Javier Milei’s attacks on the islands’ oil industry and suggestions that fisheries could also face pressure. The dispute involves Argentina, the United Kingdom, and the Falkland Islands’ authorities, but the reported measures and rhetoric have not involved an armed attack reaching Argentine territory.
The main uncertainty is whether domestic political pressure or the Falklands dispute could produce an abrupt escalation beyond economic and diplomatic coercion. Risk would rise most clearly with Argentine military mobilisation or an armed incident involving Argentina; it would be supported at the current minimal level by continued institutional control, diplomatic management, and the absence of sustained armed activity inside Argentina.
Strategic reasoning
- Argentina’s strong state capacity, functioning political institutions, and civilian control of the armed forces make a new civil conflict, insurgency, or coup-related confrontation on its territory unlikely; the 1982 Falklands war remains the principal relevant episode of interstate conflict.
- The clearest current escalatory signal is renewed pressure on the Falkland Islands’ oil and fisheries sectors, but this concerns a disputed territory and has so far remained political and economic rather than an armed conflict on Argentina’s own territory.
Critical indicators
- On 18 October 2026, The Guardian reported that Argentina’s president, facing weaker polling, was attacking the Falkland Islands’ oil industry and suggesting that its fisheries could be targeted next. This signals sharper rhetoric and coercive economic pressure involving the United Kingdom and the islands’ authorities, without reporting an armed attack.
- Argentina’s 1982 war with the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands is the country’s key modern interstate-conflict precedent. Its historical relevance supports monitoring military escalation while distinguishing that past conflict from any new fighting on Argentine territory.
Probability trend
How the Argentina estimate has moved
Probability0.9%0.9%0.9%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Argentina.
Regional context
Argentina compared with its neighbours and region
Argentina ranks number 116 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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