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Silfio country intelligence

Costa Rica

Minimal risk0.6% annual probabilitystable trend
Costa Rica flag

Costa Rica facts

Population

5.15M

GDP

$102.9B

Currency

CRC

Capital

San José

Land area

51.1K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Costa Rica

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.6%

Model base probability

0.5%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Costa Rica regarding armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news shows no indication of internal unrest, insurgency, or coup attempts; political and social developments appear stable with government initiatives in healthcare, budget management, and international agreements.
  • No reports or credible indications of interstate conflict or foreign aggression against Costa Rica are present; regional tensions exist but do not directly implicate Costa Rica as a conflict zone.
  • Some political friction is noted (e.g., judiciary refusing to attend a security council meeting), but this is procedural and does not signal imminent armed conflict.

Critical indicators

  • Judiciary rejects participation in National Security Council meeting, indicating some institutional friction but no armed conflict risk.
  • Costa Rica and Panama sign a binational health agreement, reflecting cooperation rather than conflict.
  • US regional military escalation noted but no direct impact on Costa Rica’s territory or conflict risk.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Costa Rica

Updated July 20, 2026

ticotimes.net · 1 day ago

Costa Rica 'sold itself' to Washington for visa power, says Óscar Arias : The Tico Times | Costa Rica News | Travel | Real Estate

Óscar Arias says Costa Rica 'sold itself' to the US over the power to strip rivals of their visas. Here's his argument and the timeline.

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cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

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www.nytimes.com · 3 days ago

Pick Your Favorite $1.9 Million Home in Costa Rica - The New York Times

An eight-bedroom compound with thatched roofs, a forest villa topped with solar panels, and a contemporary indoor-outdoor house.

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