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Silfio country intelligence · CRI
Costa Rica
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.15M
GDP
$102.9B
Currency
CRC
Capital
San José
Land area
51.1K km²
Official languages
Spanish
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Costa Rica is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Costa Rica’s long record of political stability, strong civilian institutions, peaceful transfers of power, and abolition of its army in 1948–49 support this low level. Its security challenges have generally involved crime and public-order pressures rather than organized armed conflict.
Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific development indicating an imminent armed confrontation on Costa Rican territory. The principal relevant actors remain the Costa Rican state and domestic criminal networks, but criminal activity does not by itself meet the threshold for a new armed conflict. No prediction market is available.
The largest uncertainty is whether a severe institutional or security shock could cause sustained armed violence between domestic actors, or draw a foreign conflict onto Costa Rican territory. Risk would rise most clearly through an organized armed challenge to the government or a cross-border attack; continued institutional resilience and effective containment of criminal violence would support the minimal assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Costa Rica’s post-1948 political settlement, civilian governance, and absence of a standing army have sharply reduced the typical pathways to coups, insurgencies, and interstate war.
- Organized crime can strain state capacity, but available information does not indicate sustained armed contestation involving the government; this separates ongoing security problems from a new conflict onset.
Critical indicators
- In 1948, Costa Rica experienced its last civil war, after which the country consolidated a long period of electoral and institutional stability.
- In 1949, Costa Rica constitutionally abolished its army, reinforcing reliance on civilian institutions and external diplomacy rather than military competition.
Probability trend
How the Costa Rica estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Costa Rica.
Regional context
Costa Rica compared with its neighbours and region
Costa Rica ranks number 155 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Central America
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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