Costa Rica

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Costa Rica is 0.3%, a minimal risk. The country has maintained democratic institutions and civilian control since the 1948 civil war, abolished its standing army that year, and has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict on its territory. These factors strongly constrain pathways to a new conflict.

Recent reporting shows President Laura Fernandez is open to possible US military operations inside Costa Rica, while emphasising that Congress would need to approve them. The issue involves Costa Rican state institutions and the United States, but the reported position does not itself indicate armed confrontation or an imminent breakdown in political order.

The main uncertainty is whether external security cooperation could become politically contested or trigger violence involving criminal or domestic armed actors. Risk would rise most clearly if foreign forces entered without broad legal and political consent, or if sustained armed clashes emerged; continued congressional oversight, civilian control, and the absence of organised insurgent activity would support the minimal level.