Belize

Belize faces a 0.3% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate fighting on its territory. Democratic institutions have generally remained functional, while violence has mainly involved localized criminal and gang activity rather than organized challenges to state authority.

Recent reporting shows contentious but constitutional political and institutional activity, not armed mobilization. The Court of Appeal’s ruling on 2020 states of emergency addressed government responses to severe crime in Southside Belize City, while the Public Service Union’s opposition to the Revenue Authority Bill remains a labor and governance dispute. Carnival preparations and planned participation by multiple marching bands also indicate normal public activity.

The largest uncertainty is whether localized criminal violence could broaden into sustained armed confrontation or whether a political dispute could produce prolonged unrest. Risk would rise with coordinated gang attacks, armed challenges to government authority, or serious confrontation involving Guatemala; it would remain lower if disputes continue through courts, unions, and elections without organized violence.