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Silfio country intelligence

Belize

Low risk1.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Belize flag

Belize facts

Population

422.92K

GDP

$3.33B

Currency

BZD

Capital

Belmopan

Land area

22.97K km²

Official languages

Belizean Creole, English, Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Belize

NEWS

Conflict probability

1%

Model base probability

0.9%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Belize, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage focuses exclusively on the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, with no indication of instability, armed violence, or interstate conflict involving Belize.
  • Belize remains structurally stable with very low baseline risk; however, global geopolitical tensions and rising military conflicts elsewhere slightly increase general global risk appetite for conflict onset.
  • Given the structural model’s tendency to understate near-term risk and the general elevated global conflict environment, a modest upward adjustment is warranted, though no direct or proximate threat to Belize is evident.

Critical indicators

  • Ongoing intense ballistic missile attacks and drone strikes in Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • Heightened geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East energy routes.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Belize

Updated July 20, 2026

www.thepaperboy.com · 2 days ago

Thepaperboy

Archive · Sat 18 Jul · US Edition · Loading 12 US front pages for 18 July 2026

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bbc.com · 2 days ago

Russian online retail warehouses hit by deadly Ukrainian strikes

Drones targeted Wildberries facilities near Moscow and in Tambov. Ukraine's leader called them "major logistics facilities" supplying "sanctioned components".

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bbc.com · 15 hours ago

Russia launches major ballistic-missile attack on Ukrainian cities

Eight people die and dozens are injured as several cities are hit by missile and drone attacks, while Kyiv continues its own assault on Russian infrastructure.

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