Mexico

The live 12-month probability is 8.0%, representing a high risk. Mexico’s large economy and established state institutions provide substantial resilience, but the country has a long history of organised criminal violence, contested territorial control, corruption, and episodes of armed confrontation involving cartels, security forces, and local authorities. These conditions create pathways for a new escalation on Mexican territory even though much current violence is continuation of existing insecurity.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific new armed-conflict development. The principal relevant actors are Mexico’s federal and local security institutions, powerful criminal organisations, and the United States, whose pressure over trafficking and border security could affect the security environment. Prediction markets separately price a 9.5% chance of a US strike on Mexico by 31 December and a 2.4% chance of a US invasion during 2026; these contracts concern possible interstate action, not necessarily a qualifying conflict onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether criminal violence remains fragmented and contained within ongoing patterns or develops into sustained, organised challenges to state authority or an interstate clash on Mexican soil. Risk would rise most clearly after a major cross-border attack, direct US military action, or coordinated cartel rebellion; it would fall with durable security cooperation and restoration of state control in contested areas.