Mexico

The live 12-month probability is 8.7%, classified as a high risk. Mexico’s long record of cartel violence, the 2006–present militarised security campaign, fragmented armed criminal organisations, and uneven state control in some territories support a meaningful risk of a new armed-conflict onset. Strong economic capacity and national institutions remain important buffers.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific battlefield escalation or new insurgent campaign. The principal potential actors are Mexican security forces, competing criminal organisations, and, indirectly, the United States; violence already occurring between these groups does not itself constitute a new onset. Prediction markets provide separate context: Polymarket prices a US strike on Mexico by 31 December at 4.1% and a US invasion during 2026 at 2.6%.

The largest uncertainty is whether criminal violence remains fragmented and below the threshold of sustained organised conflict, or develops into open territorial warfare involving state forces or foreign intervention. Risk would rise most clearly after a sustained armed confrontation, a major cartel-state rupture, or a cross-border US operation reaching Mexican territory; continued institutional control and containment would support a lower-risk trajectory.