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Silfio country intelligence

Mexico

Moderate risk3.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Mexico flag

Mexico facts

Population

131.95M

GDP

$1.83T

Currency

MXN

Capital

Mexico City

Land area

1.96M km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Mexico

MARKET

Conflict probability

3%

Model base probability

1.9%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market (Polymarket, $701,921 volume) shows a 12.0% probability of a US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026, which is about 5.5 months away. Annualizing this to a 12-month horizon roughly doubles the risk to about 24%, but this market specifically targets a US strike, not a full invasion or internal conflict onset.
  • The market for a full US invasion of Mexico in 2026 is much lower at 2.1% with lower volume ($247,616), indicating limited crowd expectation of a large-scale interstate war.
  • The structural model baseline is 1.88%, which is low and based on long-term factors, but the market signal for a US strike is significantly higher and suggests elevated short-term risk of some armed conflict involving the US on Mexican soil.
  • News coverage focuses heavily on US-Iran conflict escalation and Latin American tensions but does not report any imminent or ongoing new armed conflict onset within Mexico itself. The arrest of a major cartel leader and designation of cartels as terrorist organizations indicate ongoing instability but no clear signal of a new onset of armed conflict within Mexico.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket market showing 12.0% probability of US strike on Mexico by end of 2026
  • Arrest of major Mexican cartel leader and designation of cartels as terrorist organizations by US authorities

Related coverage

Latest articles about Mexico

Updated July 20, 2026

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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npr.org · 2 days ago

The U.S. and Iran blow past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war

The United States and Iran exchanged strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets on Saturday as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

Iran suggests MoU ‘suspended’ as 50 killed in US strikes in July | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Conflict has been escalating since US President Donald Trump declared 10 days ago that peace deal with Iran was over.

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