Guatemala

Guatemala has a 12-month new-conflict probability of 2.0%, a low risk. The main supporting factors are its history of civil war, persistent institutional weakness, corruption, inequality, and limited state control in some areas. The 1960–1996 internal conflict ended through a peace settlement, making a return to organised nationwide warfare unlikely but not inconceivable.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific indication of an imminent insurgency, coup, invasion, or sustained armed confrontation involving the state. The principal relevant actors would be Guatemala’s security institutions, political factions, criminal organisations, and, indirectly, neighbouring states; current criminal violence does not by itself constitute the target event.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or institutional confrontation could generate organised armed mobilisation, particularly during a severe governance crisis. Risk would rise most clearly if security forces split, armed groups began sustained attacks on state targets, or neighbouring conflict spilled onto Guatemalan territory; credible political accommodation and effective security coordination would support lower risk.