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Silfio country intelligence

Guatemala

Low risk1.2% annual probabilitystable trend
Guatemala flag

Guatemala facts

Population

18.69M

GDP

$123.31B

Currency

GTQ

Capital

Guatemala City

Land area

108.89K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Guatemala

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.2%

Model base probability

1.0%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Guatemala armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news shows no direct signs of armed conflict onset in Guatemala, but a major 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border region, causing regional instability and potential humanitarian stress.
  • Regional geopolitical tensions are elevated due to ongoing US-Iran conflict and US interventions in nearby countries (Venezuela, Cuba), which could indirectly increase instability risks in Central America.
  • No reports of internal armed conflict, insurgency, or coup attempts in Guatemala itself, nor any interstate military aggression targeting Guatemala.

Critical indicators

  • 7.3 magnitude earthquake on Mexico-Guatemala border on 2026-07-17
  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict and regional geopolitical tensions in July 2026

Related coverage

Latest articles about Guatemala

Updated July 20, 2026

xpert.digital · 3 days ago

Disaster meets coup: The dramatic US experiment in Venezuela threatens to fail

🛑 A dramatic US intervention and a devastating twin earthquake plunge Venezuela into a political and humanitarian crisis. 🌍 Washington now de facto controls oil revenues, thus pitting sovereignty against stability. ⛽ Access to the world's largest oil reserves is becoming a geopolitical ...

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theguardian.com · 1 day ago

Cuba edges toward breakdown as power cuts and US meddling push society to brink | Cuba | The Guardian

As Cuba swelters under six-month oil blockade imposed by US, tempers are fraying and unrest is growing

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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