Honduras

Honduras has a 1.7% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. The level reflects a history of political violence, the 2009 coup, contested elections, entrenched criminal groups, institutional weakness, and limited state capacity in parts of the country. These factors leave channels for localised armed escalation, while Honduras has not experienced a sustained civil war in recent decades.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific development indicating an imminent new conflict on Honduran territory. The principal domestic risks would involve state security forces, political factions, organised criminal groups, or armed local networks; cross-border developments would matter chiefly if they produced fighting inside Honduras. No prediction market is available for Honduras.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or criminal confrontation could cross from coercion and episodic violence into sustained organised fighting. Risk would rise with a contested transfer of power, a coup attempt, coordinated attacks on state institutions, or territorial clashes involving security forces and armed groups. It would remain lower if political competition stays institutional and security tensions do not consolidate into organised armed confrontation.