Honduras

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Honduras is 1.8%, a low risk. The assessment is supported by Honduras’s history of political instability, including the 2009 coup, persistent gang violence, and limited institutional capacity, while the country has generally avoided sustained civil war or interstate conflict.

Recent reporting provides no specific development indicating that organised domestic actors or neighbouring states are preparing to initiate a new conflict on Honduran territory. The principal relevant actors remain the Honduran state, criminal networks such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, and political factions whose disputes have historically generated unrest rather than sustained insurgency.

The main uncertainty is whether criminal violence or political confrontation could become sustained, organised fighting that exceeds ordinary public-security threats. A coup, prolonged armed mobilisation by security forces or political groups, or a major escalation involving gangs would raise risk; continued state control and containment of organised violence would lower it.