Nicaragua

Nicaragua has a 1.8% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. The country’s history of civil war, the Contra conflict, and later episodes of severe political violence keep the underlying exposure above minimal levels. Concentrated executive power and weak institutions could also make disputes harder to resolve peacefully.

Recent reporting describes President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo tightening political control while the economy faces pressure from possible US sanctions, CAFTA exposure, and dependence on record remittances. These pressures could intensify social grievances, but the report does not identify an organized armed challenge or cross-border attack reaching Nicaragua.

The main uncertainty is whether economic stress and political repression would generate sustained armed mobilisation rather than further coercive control or non-violent opposition. Risk would rise most clearly with the emergence of an organized insurgent movement, armed clashes involving state forces, or a foreign military attack on Nicaraguan territory; it would be reinforced downward by continued political control without armed escalation.