United States

The United States has a 1.4% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within the next 12 months, making it a low risk. Its large economy, strong state capacity, professional security institutions, and established mechanisms for political succession constrain escalation. However, the country has a history of internal armed conflict, including the Civil War, and recent episodes of politically motivated violence show that severe polarization can produce localized confrontations.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an imminent insurgency, civil war, coup, invasion, or sustained armed clashes on US territory. The principal domestic actors would be federal and state authorities, political extremists, organized armed groups, and security forces; interstate risk is constrained by the country’s military strength and geographic insulation.

The largest uncertainty is whether a contested political or social crisis could cause organized groups to move from sporadic violence to sustained armed activity. Risk would rise if armed factions began coordinated attacks, seized territory, or obtained meaningful support from political or foreign sponsors; it would fall if federal and state institutions continued managing disputes peacefully and isolated violent networks effectively.