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Silfio country intelligence

United States

Low risk2.5% annual probabilitystable trend
United States flag

United States facts

Population

341.78M

GDP

$30.77T

Currency

USD

Capital

Washington D.C.

Land area

9.37M km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of United States

NEWS

Conflict probability

2.5%

Model base probability

1.4%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for armed conflict onset on US soil, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news depicts a rapidly escalating US-Iran conflict with multiple US military casualties abroad, increased airstrikes, and breakdown of peace agreements, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions.
  • Although these events are external and do not directly indicate armed conflict on US territory, the risk of spillover, retaliatory attacks, or domestic instability linked to foreign conflict is elevated compared to the structural baseline.
  • The structural model’s low baseline (1.44%) does not capture this acute escalation, so a moderate upward adjustment is warranted to reflect increased near-term risk of new conflict onset on US soil.

Critical indicators

  • Two US soldiers killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan, followed by US airstrikes against Iran.
  • US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports amid escalating strikes and breakdown of interim peace agreement.

Related coverage

Latest articles about United States

Updated July 20, 2026

cnn.com · 3 days ago

Trump is edging towards another American ‘forever war’ in Iran | CNN

It is the ultimate sanction. But somehow for President Donald Trump – who once sought a Nobel Peace Prize for ending wars – military force has become a casual measure, a kind of background effect used to cajole Iran into diplomacy.

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timesofindia.indiatimes.com · 3 days ago

US-Iran war Highlights: Kuwait says it is retaliating after Iran strikes hit oil, power and desalination plants - The Times of India

The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with Washington expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets and tigh

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www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

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