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Silfio country intelligence · USA
United States
1.4% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
341.78M
GDP
$30.77T
Currency
USD
Capital
Washington D.C.
Land area
9.37M km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on US territory is 1.4%, making this a low risk. The United States has strong state capacity, resilient institutions, and no recent history of civil war or sustained insurgency on its mainland, though its large global military footprint creates exposure to retaliation and escalation.
Recent reporting shows the United States is engaged in an active war with Iran abroad, with disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb and Iranian threats of severe damage to the United States and its regional allies. These developments involve the US, Iran, Yemen’s Houthis, Israel, and Gulf states, but the reported fighting remains outside US territory. Washington’s intelligence support for Ukraine and its policy toward Russia add further international security pressures.
The largest uncertainty is whether the Iran conflict expands from overseas operations into attacks or sustained armed violence inside the United States. Risk would rise most clearly after a credible domestic attack linked to a foreign adversary or organised armed movement; it would fall if the Iran ceasefire conditions hold and threats against the United States subside.
Strategic reasoning
- The United States’ institutional strength, security capacity, geographic insulation, and absence of recent domestic war strongly constrain the emergence of sustained armed conflict on its territory.
- The Iran war is the clearest escalatory signal, but overseas combat, maritime disruption, and threats against US interests do not themselves constitute a new onset inside the United States.
- Political polarisation and the country’s history of episodic domestic armed violence remain relevant background risks, while no reported development indicates sustained organised fighting at home.
Critical indicators
- On October 17, CNN reported that the US-Iran war had severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and, more recently, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The disruption demonstrates the conflict’s international reach but remains geographically outside US territory.
- On October 19, CBS reported that Iranian Defence Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi threatened “enormous damage” to the United States and its Middle Eastern allies if Washington resumed its campaign. The statement is a direct escalation concern, although it did not report an attack inside the United States.
- On October 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Washington had resumed intelligence sharing after a pause. This reinforces US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, which remains an overseas conflict rather than a new armed-conflict onset on US territory.
Probability trend
How the United States estimate has moved
Probability1.4%1.4%1.4%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in United States.
Regional context
United States compared with its neighbours and region
United States ranks number 98 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
North America
- Mexico8.7%
- United States1.4%
- Canada0.2%
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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