Canada

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Canada is 0.2%, a minimal risk. Canada’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, and long record of resolving political disputes through elections and courts support this very low level. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained armed violence between domestic actors.

The main current concern is Alberta’s first independence referendum, reported for 19 October, which tests tensions between provincial separatists and the federal government. The 18 October fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, which killed four service members and injured 39, occurred during live-munitions training; authorities are investigating its cause, and reporting provides no indication that it was an armed attack.

The largest uncertainty is whether separatist politics could produce disorder beyond constitutional and electoral channels. Risk would rise if the Alberta dispute generated organised violence, armed mobilisation, or coercive confrontation with Ottawa; it would fall further if the vote and its aftermath remained peaceful and the military-base investigation confirmed an accidental cause.