Canada

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Canada is 0.2%, a minimal risk. Canada’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, and long record without civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory strongly support this level. Its geographic position and close defence relationship with the United States further reduce the likelihood of an armed attack reaching Canadian soil.

Recent reporting shows a serious deterioration in Canada–US relations, centred on tariffs, critical minerals, exchange rates, and a reported pause in Justice Department antitrust cooperation. President Donald Trump and Canadian officials, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, are exchanging increasingly confrontational economic measures, but the developments remain coercive and diplomatic rather than military.

The largest uncertainty is whether the trade dispute produces a wider breakdown in bilateral security cooperation or encourages domestic violence around political and economic grievances. Risk would rise most clearly with armed attacks, mobilisation, military threats, or sustained political violence on Canadian territory; continued negotiations and functioning military communication channels would support the minimal level.