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Silfio country intelligence · TTO
Trinidad and Tobago
0.5% annual probability
Population
1.37M
GDP
$25.94B
Currency
TTD
Capital
Port of Spain
Land area
5.13K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Trinidad and Tobago is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. The country has stable state institutions, substantial economic capacity, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate war on its territory. These factors strongly support the continuation of political order.
Recent reporting is focused on the Jamaica Kingsmen’s robotic mascot appearing at Providence stadium ahead of a Caribbean Premier League match with Guyana, rather than on political violence or military tensions involving Trinidad and Tobago. No prediction markets were available. The principal domestic concern remains criminal-gang violence, but this has not developed into organised armed conflict challenging state authority.
The largest uncertainty is whether serious criminal violence could become sustained, organised confrontation involving security forces or rival armed groups. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, territorial control by gangs, political violence, or a breakdown in policing and institutions; it would remain lower if criminal violence stays localised and authorities retain effective control.
Strategic reasoning
- Trinidad and Tobago’s absence of recent civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate conflict, combined with functioning institutions and economic capacity, is a strong stabilising factor for new-onset risk.
- Gang-related violence is the clearest potential escalatory pathway, but it remains distinct from a new armed conflict unless it becomes sustained, organised, and territorially contested.
Critical indicators
- On 7 September 2026, reporting described the Jamaica Kingsmen’s robotic mascot at Providence stadium ahead of a Caribbean Premier League clash with Guyana. This is a sporting development with no reported connection to armed conflict in Trinidad and Tobago.
- Trinidad and Tobago’s established record of political stability, despite periodic serious criminal violence, supports the live minimal-risk assessment because criminality has not produced an insurgency, civil war, or sustained armed challenge to state authority.
Probability trend
How the Trinidad and Tobago estimate has moved
Probability0.5%0.5%0.4%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Trinidad and Tobago compared with its neighbours and region
Trinidad and Tobago ranks number 140 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.