Dominica

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Dominica is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, rebellion, or coups, while its small population, functioning political institutions, and limited military capacity reduce the likelihood that domestic disputes become organized armed conflict. Dominica’s exposure to regional insecurity is also limited.

Recent reporting shows ordinary criminal and political developments rather than conflict mobilization. A Portsmouth woman was remanded in connection with the murder of Jerbiah Paul, and a fourth police officer became the sixth person charged in the related case; these are serious law-enforcement matters but do not indicate sustained armed violence. Dominica’s electoral authorities also report readiness for the Roseau North by-election.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis, organized criminal escalation, or external regional shock could overwhelm established institutions. Risk would rise with armed attacks involving organized domestic or foreign actors on Dominican territory; it would remain lower if the by-election proceeds peacefully and current violence remains isolated criminal activity.