dominicagazette.com
Silfio country intelligence · DMA
Dominica
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
65.87K
GDP
$723.86M
Currency
XCD
Capital
Roseau
Land area
751 km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Dominica has no sustained record of civil war, insurgency, or interstate warfare since independence in 1978. Its small population, functioning political institutions, and geographic isolation further limit the capacity and incentives for organised armed violence on the island.
Recent reporting provides no indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, political violence, military confrontation, or external threats involving Dominica. The available article concerns President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a conflict outside Dominica and unrelated to an onset on Dominican territory.
The main uncertainty is the possibility of an unforeseen political breakdown, criminal escalation, or external crisis affecting the wider eastern Caribbean, although no current reporting identifies such a pathway. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed attacks, an organised challenge to state authority, or hostile foreign action reaching Dominica; continued institutional stability and the absence of armed mobilisation would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Dominica’s post-1978 history has been largely peaceful, without sustained insurgency, civil war, or interstate conflict on its territory. This leaves few established armed networks or conflict patterns that could readily generate a new onset.
- The strongest current signal is the absence of reported domestic or external armed confrontation. Fighting involving Russia and Ukraine is geographically separate and does not count toward conflict onset in Dominica.
Critical indicators
- A recent Dominica Gazette report focused on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. It provides international context but identifies no threat, armed group, or military activity in Dominica.
- Since independence in 1978, Dominica has maintained a generally stable political order without a sustained armed conflict on its territory. That history supports the very low likelihood of a new domestic or interstate onset.
Probability trend
How the Dominica estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Dominica.
Regional context
Dominica compared with its neighbours and region
Dominica ranks number 191 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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