Dominican Republic

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Dominican Republic is 0.6%, placing it in the minimal risk category. The country has comparatively strong economic capacity and state institutions, while its main episode of internal conflict—the 1965 civil war—was followed by decades of political stability and no sustained insurgency.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no specific indication of armed mobilisation, a coup threat, organised rebellion, or an interstate attack reaching Dominican territory. The principal external concern is possible spillover from instability in neighbouring Haiti, but the Dominican government retains effective security forces and control over its territory. No prediction market is available for this country.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe deterioration in Haiti, a major domestic political rupture, or a breakdown in state authority could create conditions for violence to cross the border or become organised internally. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed incursions or domestic clashes involving security forces; continued institutional control, orderly political competition, and containment of border insecurity would support the minimal assessment.