Silfio country intelligence

Jamaica

Low risk1.5% annual probabilitystable trend

Population

2.84M

GDP

$22.7B

Currency

JMD

Capital

Kingston

Land area

10.99K km²

Official languages

English, Jamaican Patois

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Jamaica

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.5%

Model base probability

1.3%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

No prediction market data exists for Jamaica, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
Recent news highlights escalating armed conflict and military strikes between the U.S. and Iran, but no indication of any conflict or instability involving Jamaica or its immediate region.
Jamaica is not mentioned as a party to any conflict or under threat of invasion or internal armed violence.
The structural model’s baseline is low (1.34%), reflecting Jamaica’s historically stable environment.

Critical indicators

Escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict with strikes on infrastructure and military targets (multiple sources, 2026-07-17 to 2026-07-18)
No reports of unrest, insurgency, or interstate conflict involving Jamaica or its territory

Related coverage

Latest articles about Jamaica

Updated July 20, 2026

counterpunch.org · 3 days ago

Sovereignty: Jamaica, Cuba, Venezuela and Israel - CounterPunch.org

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) recently issued a memo which states: Cuba is not Venezuela. What does that mean? "The same people

Read source

www.thepaperboy.com · 2 days ago