Jamaica

Jamaica faces a 0.9% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, placing it in the minimal risk category. The main supporting factors are the country’s history of severe gang violence and politically connected armed groups, concentrated urban insecurity, and the persistence of firearms and illicit networks. These conditions create a latent risk of escalation, although Jamaica has generally retained functioning state institutions and security control.

Recent reporting describes the deaths of Jamaica Constabulary Force officers Corporal Trevoy Shaw and Constable Devoney Rose after a confrontation with armed individuals, while a child was reportedly fighting for life. The incident underlines the lethality of criminal violence in Kingston and the pressure on the JCF, but the available account does not indicate organised rebellion, sustained territorial control, or an interstate threat.

The largest uncertainty is whether criminal groups could coordinate or exploit a major political, institutional, or security crisis. A clear rise in coordinated attacks on the state, prolonged clashes between armed domestic factions, or loss of government control over communities would raise risk; continued effective policing and containment of gang violence would support the minimal classification.