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Silfio country intelligence · KNA
Saint Kitts and Nevis
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
46.92K
GDP
$1.18B
Currency
XCD
Capital
Basseterre
Land area
261 km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Saint Kitts and Nevis is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related fighting, or interstate conflict on its territory. Its small size, functioning political institutions, and limited military capacity reduce the likelihood that political or social disputes would develop into sustained armed violence.
Recent reporting shows cooperative international engagement rather than confrontation. Saint Kitts and Nevis and Ghana signed an additional labour agreement covering Ghanaian nurses, with enhanced pay, health insurance, and rent allowances for 47 deployed nurses. No reported activity by domestic armed groups, neighbouring states, or external forces indicates preparations for violence on the islands.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political crisis, serious criminal escalation, or external shock could overwhelm the country’s institutional and security capacity. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed attacks, sustained clashes involving security forces, or credible threats from a domestic or foreign actor; continued institutional stability and cooperative external relations would support the minimal-risk assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Saint Kitts and Nevis’s absence of a recent armed-conflict history, alongside functioning institutions and limited geopolitical exposure, makes a new internal or interstate conflict onset highly unlikely.
- The latest bilateral activity with Ghana concerns labour cooperation and the welfare of 47 nurses, providing no indication of an armed escalation or a new conflict on the country’s territory.
Critical indicators
- On 28 September 2026, Ghana reported enhanced salaries, health insurance, and rent allowances for 47 nurses deployed to Saint Kitts and Nevis under a bilateral agreement, indicating routine cooperative engagement.
- On 29 September 2026, Ghana and Saint Kitts and Nevis signed an additional labour agreement for nurses. The development concerns employment conditions and does not involve military activity, territorial disputes, or armed groups.
Probability trend
How the Saint Kitts and Nevis estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Saint Kitts and Nevis.
Regional context
Saint Kitts and Nevis compared with its neighbours and region
Saint Kitts and Nevis ranks number 195 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
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