Antigua and Barbuda

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Antigua and Barbuda is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate attack on its territory. Its small population, stable democratic institutions, and limited military capacity further reduce the likelihood that political or criminal disputes would develop into sustained armed violence.

Recent reporting concerns domestic law enforcement rather than organised conflict. On 4 September, Prime Minister Gaston Browne questioned the Director of Public Prosecutions over the withdrawal of gun and drug cases, highlighting tensions over prosecution and public security but no armed mobilisation by state or non-state actors. Antigua and Barbuda’s regional setting also provides no reported indication of an impending cross-border attack.

The main uncertainty is whether serious criminal networks or an acute political crisis could overwhelm institutions and produce sustained violence, although current evidence does not point to that pathway. A clear rise in organised armed activity, politically motivated violence, or a credible external military threat would raise risk; continued institutional management of criminal cases and political disputes would support the minimal assessment.