Antigua and Barbuda

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Antigua and Barbuda is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no established record of civil war, insurgency, coup-related armed violence, or interstate conflict since independence in 1981. Its small population, functioning political institutions, and limited strategic value also reduce the domestic and external drivers normally associated with conflict onset.

Recent reporting provides no identified indication of armed mobilisation, organised rebellion, or a credible foreign threat directed at Antiguan or Barbudan territory. The principal relevant actors are the national government and security services; no armed group or neighbouring state is currently identified as preparing violence on the country's territory.

The largest uncertainty is the possibility of an unforeseen political or criminal-security shock that could overwhelm normal institutional controls, although no such trigger is identified in the reviewed material. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed violence, a coup attempt, or a cross-border attack; it would remain lower if political stability and the absence of organised armed activity continue.