Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s small population, island geography, functioning parliamentary institutions, and limited history of organised political violence support a very low likelihood of civil conflict, rebellion, coup, or foreign attack on its territory.

Recent reporting provides no indication of armed mobilisation, political violence, insurgent activity, or interstate tension involving Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The available coverage concerns a CONCACAF Nations League football match against Belize, with team news and line-ups, rather than security developments. No prediction market is available for this country.

The main uncertainty is the possibility of an abrupt and highly atypical political or security shock, which is not signalled by current reporting. Risk would rise materially if sustained armed violence, an attempted seizure of state power, organised militant activity, or a credible external threat emerged; continued institutional stability and the absence of such developments would support the current minimal level.