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Silfio country intelligence

Bahamas

Low risk1.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Bahamas flag

Bahamas facts

Population

403.03K

GDP

$15.83B

Currency

BSD

Capital

Nassau

Land area

13.94K km²

Official languages

English

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bahamas

NEWS

Conflict probability

1%

Model base probability

0.7%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for armed conflict onset in the Bahamas, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • The news overwhelmingly documents escalating US-Iran conflict centered in the Middle East, with no direct mention or indication of conflict risk spreading to the Caribbean or Bahamas specifically.
  • However, there is mention of increased US military involvement in the Caribbean and Latin America (Operation Southern Spear), which could raise regional tensions and instability, indirectly increasing risk of conflict onset in nearby territories like the Bahamas.
  • The structural model baseline is very low (0.69%), reflecting Bahamas’ historically stable and peaceful environment.

Critical indicators

  • US military escalation and strikes against Iran in the Middle East, raising global geopolitical tensions.
  • Increased US military operations in the Caribbean and Latin America under Operation Southern Spear.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bahamas

Updated July 20, 2026

www.ynetnews.com · 15 hours ago

US military buildup signals possible major escalation with Iran

Refueling aircraft and fighter jets arrive in Israel, Washington expands travel warnings and senior officials signal growing impatience after US troops are killed, though Israel may initially remain outside any renewed American campaign

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xpert.digital · 3 days ago

Disaster meets coup: The dramatic US experiment in Venezuela threatens to fail

🛑 A dramatic US intervention and a devastating twin earthquake plunge Venezuela into a political and humanitarian crisis. 🌍 Washington now de facto controls oil revenues, thus pitting sovereignty against stability. ⛽ Access to the world's largest oil reserves is becoming a geopolitical ...

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cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

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