Bahamas

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Bahamas is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has strong institutions, a functioning democratic system, and substantial economic capacity relative to most Caribbean states. It also has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or sustained political armed violence.

Recent reporting is focused on tourism: a guide to fishing charters in Bimini describes recreational services and travel planning, with no indication of organised political violence or interstate tension. No prediction markets are available for the Bahamas. The principal security concern is criminal activity, but current evidence does not show it developing into sustained armed conflict involving the state or organised domestic factions.

The main uncertainty is whether an exceptional political, criminal, or external-security shock could generate sustained armed violence on Bahamian territory. Risk would rise most clearly with an armed confrontation involving state authorities, organised groups, or a foreign actor; continued institutional stability, effective policing, and the absence of territorial attacks would support the minimal-risk assessment.