Silfio country intelligence · BHS
Bahamas
0.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
403.03K
GDP
$15.83B
Currency
BSD
Capital
Nassau
Land area
13.94K km²
Official languages
English
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The Bahamas has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate war on its territory. Its stable constitutional institutions, small population, geographic separation from major conflict zones, and capable security partnerships strongly support continued domestic peace.
Recent reporting provides no specific indication of an emerging armed-conflict onset involving the Bahamian state, domestic political actors, or neighbouring countries. The main security concern is criminal violence, particularly involving firearms and organised networks, but this remains distinct from sustained insurgency or politically motivated armed conflict. No prediction market is available for the Bahamas.
The largest uncertainty is whether severe criminal violence could become organised, sustained, and politically directed, or whether an external crisis could reach Bahamian territory. Risk would rise if armed groups began contesting state authority or if a cross-border attack occurred; continued institutional stability, effective policing, and the absence of organised political violence would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- The Bahamas’ record of political stability and the absence of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate conflict provide a strong basis for the minimal risk assessment.
- Criminal violence is a relevant security concern, but it does not constitute a new armed-conflict onset unless it develops into sustained, organised fighting involving political or territorial challenges to the state.
Critical indicators
- As of 19 October 2026, no reported development identifies an armed group, political faction, neighbouring state, or external actor preparing to initiate sustained fighting on Bahamian territory.
- The absence of a prediction market for the Bahamas provides no separate market signal; the country’s established institutional stability and lack of recent armed conflict continue to support the live assessment.
Probability trend
How the Bahamas estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Bahamas.
Regional context
Bahamas compared with its neighbours and region
Bahamas ranks number 179 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.