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Silfio country intelligence

Cuba

Critical risk27.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Cuba flag

Cuba facts

Population

10.94M

GDP

$107.35B

Currency

CUC

Capital

Havana

Land area

109.88K km²

Official languages

Spanish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Cuba

MARKET

Conflict probability

27.5%

Model base probability

1.3%

Risk category

Critical

Strategic reasoning

  • High-volume prediction markets show substantial probabilities for US military action or clashes with Cuba in 2026: a 31.5% chance of a US strike by year-end and a 32.0% chance of a US-Cuba military clash, both resolving within about 5 months, implying elevated near-term risk.
  • The US invasion market at 12.5% is lower but still significant, indicating some risk of a full interstate conflict onset.
  • The near-term US strike market (31.5% over ~5 months) annualizes to roughly 75% over 12 months if risk is evenly distributed, but given uncertainty and the difference between strike and full invasion, a moderated adjustment to ~27.5% is reasonable.
  • News corroborates escalating tensions: a six-month US oil blockade causing severe power outages, US sanctions expanding, Pentagon reviewing military intervention options, and Trump’s cryptic warnings suggest rising instability and potential for new armed conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • US-imposed six-month oil blockade causing severe power outages and societal strain in Cuba.
  • High-volume prediction markets showing ~31-32% probability of US military strike or clash with Cuba in 2026.
  • Pentagon reportedly reviewing military intervention options including air assault on Cuba.
  • Former President Trump’s public statements hinting at imminent significant developments regarding Cuba.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Cuba

Updated July 20, 2026

theguardian.com · 1 day ago

Cuba edges toward breakdown as power cuts and US meddling push society to brink | Cuba | The Guardian

As Cuba swelters under six-month oil blockade imposed by US, tempers are fraying and unrest is growing

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tribune.com.pk · 2 days ago

Cuban president denounces latest US sanctions, accuses Washington of reviving 'McCarthyism' | The Express Tribune

Miguel Diaz-Canel argues US-backed far right uses 'radical left' to justify 'aggression'

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cubaheadlines.com · 2 days ago

Why Hasn't Trump Pushed the Button on Cuba? Historians Weigh In

In mid-July 2026, despite imposing over 240 sanctions on the Cuban regime since January and facing an island teetering on the brink of an energy colla...

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