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Silfio country intelligence

Haiti

Low risk2.5% annual probabilityfalling trend
Haiti flag

Haiti facts

Population

11.91M

GDP

$32.08B

Currency

HTG

Capital

Port-au-Prince

Land area

27.75K km²

Official languages

French, Haitian Creole

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Haiti

NEWS

Conflict probability

2.5%

Model base probability

1.5%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for armed conflict onset in Haiti, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Haiti has been under junta control since a 2021 coup, with ongoing severe repression and violence against civilians and pro-democracy activists, indicating persistent instability and a volatile security environment.
  • Although the conflict is ongoing, the brutal repression and mass arrests suggest a high risk of new armed conflict onset, such as insurgencies, uprisings, or new fronts emerging within the next 12 months.
  • Regional geopolitical tensions (notably US-Iran conflict) do not directly implicate Haiti but contribute to a globally unstable environment; however, no direct interstate threat to Haiti is evident.

Critical indicators

  • Since the February 2021 coup, over 8,000 killed and 31,000 arrested by the military junta in Haiti during the Spring Revolution (source [1]).
  • Continued violent repression of pro-democracy activists and civilians by the junta and pro-military groups.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Haiti

Updated July 20, 2026

aappb.org · 3 days ago

Daily Briefing in Relation to the Military Coup

Date - 17 July 2026 Since the 1 February 2021 coup, a total of (8,183) people, including pro-democracy activists and civilians, have been killed by the junta and pro-military groups during the Spring Revolution. A total of (31,529) people have been arrested by the junta for opposing their arbitrary ...

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cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

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