Haiti

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Haiti is 7.6%, a high risk. Haiti’s long history of coups, political violence, weak state institutions, limited economic capacity, and recurring armed mobilisation leaves national authorities poorly placed to prevent a new escalation from spreading across the country. Existing gang conflict is context rather than itself a new onset, but it materially raises the danger of further conflict involving new actors or territory.

Recent reporting shows gangs remain capable of shifting violence between neighbourhoods in and around Port-au-Prince. A massacre on the capital’s outskirts on August 23–24, reported by Le Monde, and coverage of elections amid rampant gang violence point to persistent pressure on state authority; Haitian authorities, gangs, and international partners are the principal actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether ongoing gang violence remains geographically contained or develops into broader, sustained armed confrontation involving political factions, security forces, or organised groups elsewhere in Haiti. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks beyond the capital or a breakdown in national and international security arrangements; it would fall with a durable reduction in gang control and credible protection for the electoral process.