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Silfio country intelligence · HTI
Haiti
6.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
11.91M
GDP
$32.08B
Currency
HTG
Capital
Port-au-Prince
Land area
27.75K km²
Official languages
French, Haitian Creole
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Haiti is 6.2%, a high risk. Haiti’s history of coups, insurgencies, gang warfare, political violence, and weak state institutions leaves limited capacity to prevent a fresh escalation from becoming organised armed conflict. Low economic capacity, severe humanitarian pressures, and contested political authority further reduce resilience.
Recent reporting shows an especially volatile security environment. The government has hired Erik Prince to lead a military-style operation against gangs in the capital, with reports of extensive drone use and continuing civilian-safety concerns. At the same time, a 50-person Bangladeshi advance team departed on October 15 to join the UN-authorised Gang Enforcement Force, placing international personnel alongside Haitian authorities and armed groups.
The largest uncertainty is whether intensified operations restore state control or instead fragment armed actors and increase retaliation. Risk would rise if the crackdown produced sustained clashes involving political or security institutions, or if deportations and worsening deprivation triggered organised violence. It would fall if the international force and Haitian authorities consistently secured key areas and enabled a credible political transition.
Strategic reasoning
- Haiti’s repeated coups, armed rebellions, gang conflicts, and institutional weakness make escalation difficult to contain. Existing gang violence is not itself a new-onset event, but it creates conditions in which a distinct nationwide or politically organised conflict could emerge.
- The strongest escalation signal is the government’s use of a private military-style operation and reported drone strikes against gangs. The main stabilising signal is the arrival of international personnel under a UN-authorised force, although their effectiveness and interaction with local actors remain uncertain.
Critical indicators
- On October 17, 2026, CNN reported that Haiti’s weakened government had hired Erik Prince to spearhead a crackdown on gangs in the capital. The operation raises the risk of retaliation, civilian harm, and wider confrontation if command and accountability remain unclear.
- On October 15, 2026, 50 Bangladeshi soldiers departed for Haiti as an advance team for the Gang Enforcement Force. Their deployment could strengthen security capacity, but it also introduces another armed actor into an already crowded conflict environment.
- On October 2026 reporting, Haiti eased electoral eligibility rules so people sanctioned by the United States, Canada, or Europe could stand in upcoming elections. The move may widen political participation, but criticism and contested legitimacy could intensify tensions during the transition.
Probability trend
How the Haiti estimate has moved
Probability6.4%6.1%5.8%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP · Data to 31 Aug 2026
Haiti: Government
286Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- Viv Ansanm
- Started
- 6 Mar 2024
Regional context
Haiti compared with its neighbours and region
Haiti ranks number 51 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
www.haitilibre.com