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Silfio country intelligence

Bahrain

High risk8.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Bahrain flag

Bahrain facts

Population

1.6M

GDP

$48.97B

Currency

BHD

Capital

Manama

Land area

765 km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bahrain

NEWS

Conflict probability

8.5%

Model base probability

2.3%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Bahrain, so adjustment relies entirely on recent news signals.
  • Multiple credible news sources report repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain’s territory, including strikes on power plants, refineries, and military bases, indicating active interstate hostilities on Bahraini soil.
  • These attacks represent a new escalation and expansion of the US-Iran conflict into Bahrain, constituting a new armed conflict onset under the defined scope (interstate conflict on Bahrain’s territory).
  • The structural model’s baseline probability is low (2.28%), reflecting long-term stability, but the current intense and repeated attacks significantly elevate the risk of a new armed conflict onset within the next 12 months.

Critical indicators

  • Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain’s power plant, refinery, and military airbase (Shakir Airbase).
  • Bahrain’s air defenses repelling waves of Iranian attacks amid ongoing US-Iran military escalation in the Gulf region.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bahrain

Updated July 20, 2026

timesofindia.indiatimes.com · 3 days ago

US-Iran war Highlights: Kuwait says it is retaliating after Iran strikes hit oil, power and desalination plants - The Times of India

The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with Washington expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets and tigh

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www.abc.net.au · 2 days ago

US targets bridges, Iran hits Bahrain power plant as war threatens to expand in scope - ABC News

Washington and Tehran have been testing the limits of escalation since their ceasefire agreement collapsed last week, raising the prospect of a return to all-out war.

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www.news24.com · 2 days ago

Bahrain, Kuwait suffer attacks as Iran war escalates with US | News24

Bahrain’s army said its air defences repelled a wave of Iranian attacks, as an AFP journalist in Manama reported hearing blasts after sirens sounded.

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