Bahrain

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Bahrain is 3.5%, a moderate risk. Bahrain’s exposure reflects its location in the Gulf, close ties with the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the presence of foreign military assets that can draw retaliation. Domestic political tensions and a history of unrest also provide a background risk of renewed internal violence, although the state has substantial security and economic capacity.

Recent reporting shows heightened regional danger involving Bahrain directly. Iran reportedly said it had struck US assets in Bahrain, while the US Embassy urged Americans to exercise heightened vigilance amid warnings of possible attacks, flight cancellations, and airspace closures. Iran’s ability and willingness to retaliate against Gulf partners, including Bahrain, are the principal immediate concerns.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional US-Iran hostilities remain confined to military targets and episodic attacks or widen into sustained violence on Bahraini territory. Further confirmed strikes, casualties, prolonged disruption, or mobilisation involving Bahraini authorities would raise risk; de-escalation between Washington and Tehran and the absence of additional attacks would lower it.