Rwanda

Rwanda’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its own territory is 11.2%, a high risk. The level reflects the country’s history of civil war and the 1994 genocide, continuing political tensions, and exposure to instability in the Great Lakes region. Strong state capacity and tight internal security are important safeguards, but Rwanda’s past shows how rapidly severe violence can emerge when political and communal tensions combine.

Recent reporting mainly concerns Rwanda’s alleged military role in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, including a newly publicised documentary describing an occupation. Fighting outside Rwanda does not itself qualify as a new domestic onset, but the involvement of Rwanda, the DRC, and armed groups in a volatile border region creates pathways to cross-border escalation or internal backlash. Other recent coverage, including a Rwandan medical innovation addressing diabetes-related amputations, provides no direct conflict signal.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional confrontation remains contained outside Rwanda or produces armed incidents, mobilisation, or political violence inside the country. A cross-border attack reaching Rwanda, major unrest involving organised armed actors, or a sharp deterioration in relations with the DRC would raise risk; sustained border control and continued domestic stability would lower it.