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Silfio country intelligence

Rwanda

High risk5.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Rwanda flag

Rwanda facts

Population

14.57M

GDP

$16.37B

Currency

RWF

Capital

Kigali

Land area

26.34K km²

Official languages

English, French, Kinyarwanda

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Rwanda

NEWS

Conflict probability

5%

Model base probability

4.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Rwanda, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage does not indicate any direct or imminent armed conflict onset in Rwanda, nor any internal instability or external threats targeting Rwanda.
  • Regional and global conflict news (Ukraine-Russia war, US-Iran tensions) are unrelated to Rwanda’s security environment and do not imply spillover risk or new conflict onset on Rwandan soil.
  • Rwanda’s sponsorship controversy is a political/cultural issue without armed conflict implications.

Critical indicators

  • No direct armed conflict or threat reported on Rwanda’s territory.
  • Ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and US-Iran tensions increase global geopolitical risk but do not directly affect Rwanda.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Rwanda

Updated July 20, 2026

www.nytimes.com · 3 days ago

Why has Aston Villa’s sponsorship deal with Visit Rwanda caused controversy? - The Athletic

Villa's new deal involves front-of-shirt sponsorship, but others clubs' previous deals with Visit Rwanda have led to protests

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independent.co.uk · 9 minutes ago

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian oil depots hit after Putin launches ballistic missile attack on Kyiv | The Independent

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in · Swipe for next article

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abc.net.au · 14 hours ago

Russia unleashes one of biggest ballistic missile attacks of the Ukraine war, Kyiv says - ABC News

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia battered Ukraine's capital Kyiv overnight into Sunday local time, with one of its biggest ballistic missile barrages of the war.

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