Rwanda

The live 12-month probability is 10.1%, representing a high risk of a new armed-conflict onset in Rwanda. The main long-run factors are the country’s legacy of mass violence and civil war, unresolved tensions linked to the 1994 genocide, and continued political restrictions that limit peaceful channels for domestic dissent.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific new incident on Rwandan territory. Rwanda’s security environment remains closely tied to armed conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where Kigali has faced allegations of supporting the M23 rebellion and has maintained intense security interests. These dynamics create potential for cross-border escalation, although fighting confined to the DRC does not itself constitute a new onset in Rwanda.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional confrontation or internal political pressure crosses into sustained armed violence inside Rwanda. A direct attack, major cross-border incident, armed mutiny, or organised domestic rebellion would raise risk; sustained diplomatic de-escalation in the Great Lakes region and continued domestic control without armed mobilisation would lower it. No prediction market is available.