Silfio country intelligence

Djibouti

High risk6.5% annual probabilitystable trend

Population

1.18M

GDP

$4.62B

Currency

DJF

Capital

Djibouti

Land area

23.2K km²

Official languages

Arabic, French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Djibouti

NEWS

Conflict probability

6.5%

Model base probability

4.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

No prediction market data is available for Djibouti, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
Recent news highlights growing regional instability in the Red Sea and Gulf region, including escalating US-Iran conflict and threats to key maritime chokepoints near Djibouti (Bab el-Mandeb Strait).
The EU is considering expanding its naval mandate in the Red Sea amid rising Houthi threats, indicating increased risk of conflict spillover into Djibouti’s maritime zone or territory.
Djibouti’s strategic location near the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint and its hosting of multiple foreign military bases make it vulnerable to conflict escalation or proxy violence.

Critical indicators

EU discussions on expanding naval mission in the Red Sea amid Houthi threat (Euronews, 2026-07-17)
Escalation of US-Iran hostilities impacting Gulf and Red Sea security (multiple sources, July 2026)

Related coverage

Latest articles about Djibouti

Updated July 20, 2026

washingtontimes.com · 1 day ago

Mali rebels ambush an army convoy, killing or capturing scores of soldiers

Islamic militants and a separatist group ambushed a Malian army convoy in the country's hard-hit north on Saturday, resulting in the killing or capture of scores of soldiers, the rebels said.

Read source