Burundi

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Burundi is 25.9%, a critical risk. The country’s long history of political violence, including the 1993–2005 civil war, contested elections, armed opposition, and recurring repression, leaves a substantial basis for renewed internal conflict. Limited institutional capacity, economic hardship, and politically polarised security structures remain important supporting factors.

Recent reporting shows President Évariste Ndayishimiye engaging separately with rival Sudanese camps as part of African Union mediation efforts. This is diplomacy conducted outside Burundi and does not itself constitute fighting on Burundian territory, but Burundi’s regional security role and exposure to conflicts around the Great Lakes remain relevant context. No prediction market is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition, security-force tensions, or armed activity involving opposition networks could again become sustained violence inside Burundi. Risk would rise with organised attacks, defections from state forces, or repression followed by retaliatory mobilisation; it would fall with durable political accommodation, restraint by security actors, and effective prevention of armed-group activity within the country.