Silfio country intelligence · BDI
Burundi
24.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
14.39M
GDP
$3.36B
Currency
BIF
Capital
Gitega
Land area
27.83K km²
Official languages
French, Kirundi
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Burundi has a 24.3% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, making it a critical risk. The country’s long history of civil war, recurrent political violence, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and unresolved ethnic and political tensions support this assessment. The 1993–2005 civil war and the severe 2015 political crisis demonstrate how quickly disputes over national power can generate organised violence.
Recent reporting provides no specific new armed confrontation on Burundi’s territory, but the principal relevant actors remain the government and security forces, opposition networks, armed groups, and neighbouring actors connected to conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Burundi’s military involvement abroad is not itself a new domestic onset, but regional armed-group activity can create pathways for violence to reach Burundi.
The largest uncertainty is whether political or regional pressure remains contained or converts into coordinated violence inside the country. Risk would rise if opposition mobilisation, repression, defections within the security forces, or cross-border armed-group activity produced sustained fighting on Burundian territory; renewed political accommodation and effective security control would lower that pressure.
Strategic reasoning
- Burundi’s civil-war legacy and the 2015 crisis leave established pathways from political contestation to organised domestic violence. Weak institutions and constrained economic capacity reduce the state’s ability to absorb shocks peacefully.
- Conflict involving Burundi’s forces or armed groups abroad does not count as a new onset at home, but instability around eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo remains an important escalation channel. The strongest stabilising factor is continued state control over the national security apparatus.
Critical indicators
- In 1993, the assassination of President Melchior Ndadaye triggered a civil war that lasted until the 2005 peace settlement, demonstrating the country’s proven vulnerability to rapid domestic escalation.
- In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s disputed pursuit of a third term produced an armed political crisis, including a failed coup attempt and sustained violence. That episode remains a relevant precedent for renewed confrontation between the government, opposition actors, and security-force factions.
Probability trend
How the Burundi estimate has moved
Probability24.4%24.4%24.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Burundi.
Regional context
Burundi compared with its neighbours and region
Burundi ranks number 13 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.