Ethiopia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Ethiopia is 56.3%, representing a critical risk. Ethiopia’s recent history of civil war, insurgency, communal violence, and contested federal-regional authority leaves repeated pathways to renewed fighting. The 2020–22 Tigray war, unresolved peace arrangements, and continuing centre–region tensions are especially important.

Recent reporting says fighting has resumed in Tigray between federal forces and a rebel alliance, prompting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to install a six-month caretaker administration and promise elections. Eritrea is the principal external actor of concern: disputes over Tigray, borders, and Ethiopia’s regional security posture have revived fears of interstate escalation. Domestic actors include federal forces, Tigrayan factions, and former fighters seeking reintegration.

The largest uncertainty is whether the Tigray crisis remains geographically contained or draws Eritrea into direct military action, while also encouraging unrest elsewhere. A durable disarmament and political settlement would lower risk; renewed fighting around Mekelle, further mobilisation by Ethiopia or Eritrea, or a breakdown of the caretaker process would raise it. Prediction markets imply roughly 10.0% odds of an Eritrean invasion by late October or December, providing separate context for the external escalation concern.