Ethiopia

Ethiopia faces a 42.8% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, making this a critical risk. The country’s recent history includes the 2020–22 Tigray war and persistent armed conflict involving federal forces, regional authorities, and insurgent groups. Weak political accommodation, unresolved territorial disputes, and the continued role of organized regional forces leave multiple pathways to renewed fighting.

Recent reporting indicates that the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement has not resolved key Tigray disputes. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is reportedly regrouping amid incomplete disarmament and renewed clashes, while tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam add interstate pressure. The United States and Ethiopia also signed a defense agreement on August 21, although this is primarily a security-cooperation framework rather than evidence of imminent conflict.

The largest uncertainty is whether Tigray’s political and security disputes can be managed without a renewed federal-regional confrontation, and whether tensions elsewhere develop into sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with major clashes involving federal forces and Tigrayan formations, or with organized fighting spreading into additional regions; credible disarmament, territorial settlement, and durable political negotiations would lower it.