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Silfio country intelligence

Madagascar

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Madagascar flag

Madagascar facts

Population

32.74M

GDP

$19.62B

Currency

MGA

Capital

Antananarivo

Land area

587.04K km²

Official languages

French, Malagasy

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Madagascar

NEWS

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

3.4%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Madagascar, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news indicates Madagascar has reinstated a nationwide energy emergency due to global oil market uncertainty linked to Middle East tensions, which can exacerbate domestic instability and political tensions.
  • Local reports highlight growing insecurity and fear in Antananarivo, with political actors reportedly using fear as a tool, suggesting rising internal tensions that could escalate into armed conflict or political violence.
  • While no direct armed conflict onset is reported, these conditions increase the risk of new internal conflict or unrest, warranting a moderate upward adjustment from the structural baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Madagascar reinstates nationwide energy emergency amid global oil market uncertainty (July 18, 2026)
  • Rising political insecurity and fear in Antananarivo as reported by local sources

Related coverage

Latest articles about Madagascar

Updated July 20, 2026

diplomat.so · 1 day ago

Madagascar Restores Nationwide Energy Emergency

Antananarivo (Diplomat.so) – The Government of Madagascar reinstated a nationwide state of energy emergency on Friday, July 18, citing renewed tensions in the Middle East that have increased uncertainty in global oil markets and raised concerns over fuel security for the import-dependent ...

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washingtontimes.com · 1 day ago

Mali rebels ambush an army convoy, killing or capturing scores of soldiers

Islamic militants and a separatist group ambushed a Malian army convoy in the country's hard-hit north on Saturday, resulting in the killing or capture of scores of soldiers, the rebels said.

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www.hindustantimes.com · 1 day ago

US-Iran war LIVE: Iran 'hits' two US military assets in Kuwait, uncertainty looms over peace deal as attacks escalate

US-Iran war LIVE: Two US soldiers were killed and four injured in Iranian fire in Jordan. Following the killings, the US military said that it carried out new airstrikes against Iran on Sunday to “swiftly punish” the country’s Revolutionary Guard for the casualties. | World News

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