Madagascar

Madagascar has a 6.1% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a high risk. The main long-run supports are its history of political crises, including the 2009 coup, weak state capacity outside major urban centres, persistent poverty, and recurring localised violence and insecurity.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific escalation involving principal national, neighbouring, or armed-group actors. The relevant risk therefore remains concentrated in domestic political confrontation, local armed networks, and violence linked to weak law enforcement rather than an evident interstate threat.

The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes or local insecurity could combine into sustained organised violence. Risk would rise most clearly after a contested transfer of power, security-force fragmentation, or coordinated attacks across several regions; credible political accommodation, effective policing, and continued containment of local violence would lower the likelihood of a new nationwide conflict.