Uganda

Uganda’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 14.2%, a high risk. The level reflects Uganda’s history of insurgency and political violence, including the long Lord’s Resistance Army rebellion, alongside pressure from contested politics, uneven institutions, and insecurity in the wider Great Lakes and South Sudan region.

Recent reporting places the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), police, and senior military leadership at the centre of public security. Military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s call for arrests and five-year prison terms over public urination illustrates a coercive law-and-order posture, while heightened security for the return and burial of Tooro King Oyo Nyimba involved additional police and UPDF deployments.

The main uncertainty is whether political or regional tensions could move beyond arrests, intimidation, or localised unrest into sustained armed confrontation inside Uganda. Risk would rise if opposition mobilisation, communal tensions, or violence linked to neighbouring conflicts produced organised armed resistance; it would fall if security deployments remained ceremonial and political disputes continued to be managed without sustained violence.