Silfio country intelligence · UGA
Uganda
13.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
51.38M
GDP
$61.99B
Currency
UGX
Capital
Kampala
Land area
241.55K km²
Official languages
English, Swahili
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 13.3%, representing a high risk of a new armed conflict on Ugandan territory. Uganda’s history of civil war, insurgency, military-led politics, and recurrent communal violence supports this level. Persistent institutional weaknesses, contested land rights, and uneven state authority can allow local disputes to become organised violence.
Recent reporting highlights continuing land-law enforcement gaps, fraudulent transactions, forced-eviction risks, and disputes affecting bibanja occupants. These pressures could mobilise communities, although the report does not describe a new nationwide armed campaign. Relevant security actors include the Ugandan state, local political and community organisations, and armed groups operating in the wider Great Lakes region; fighting by Ugandan forces abroad is not itself a qualifying onset.
The main uncertainty is whether local grievances remain legal and political disputes or acquire sustained armed organisation. Risk would rise through coordinated attacks, armed mobilisation around land or elections, or a major cross-border incursion reaching Uganda. Stronger dispute resolution, credible land enforcement, and containment of regional armed-group activity would lower the likelihood of a new domestic conflict.
Strategic reasoning
- Uganda’s past civil wars and insurgencies show that weak political inclusion and contested authority can produce sustained internal violence, while land disputes provide a broad local grievance base.
- The clearest current escalatory signal is continued land insecurity; the main stabilising factor is the state’s substantial security capacity and experience suppressing armed challengers.
- Violence involving Ugandan forces outside Uganda would remain context only; the relevant threshold is sustained armed conflict beginning on Ugandan territory.
Critical indicators
- A recent New Vision report on Uganda’s land disputes described inconsistent enforcement, fraudulent transactions, evictions, and continued conflict over bibanja rights. These issues can intensify mistrust between occupants, landowners, officials, and political networks.
- Uganda’s earlier LRA insurgency and recurring armed-group threats in the Great Lakes region remain relevant country factors: they demonstrate mobilisation pathways, but do not by themselves constitute a new conflict onset inside Uganda.
Probability trend
How the Uganda estimate has moved
Probability13.3%13.3%13.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Uganda.
Regional context
Uganda compared with its neighbours and region
Uganda ranks number 27 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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