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Silfio country intelligence

Uganda

High risk6.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Uganda flag

Uganda facts

Population

51.38M

GDP

$61.99B

Currency

UGX

Capital

Kampala

Land area

241.55K km²

Official languages

English, Swahili

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Uganda

NEWS

Conflict probability

6.5%

Model base probability

4.8%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Uganda, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news highlights a systematic military crackdown on dissent, political opposition, and independent media in Uganda, indicating rising internal tensions and potential for domestic unrest or insurgency.
  • Uganda is facing significant international pressure, as evidenced by hiring US lobbyists to repair its image, which may reflect underlying instability or governance challenges.
  • No direct indications of interstate armed conflict or invasion threats against Uganda were found, but internal repression and political instability increase the risk of new internal armed conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Uganda’s military crackdown on human rights, political opposition, and independent media (African Elements report).
  • Uganda hiring US lobbyists for $240,000 to repair its international image amid mounting pressure (The Black Examiner).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Uganda

Updated July 20, 2026

aljazeera.com · 2 days ago

Ukraine ‘cuts off’ Crimea from Russia, plunging it into an energy crisis | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Ukraine is ramping up short-, medium- and long-range drone production to bring Russia’s war to a standstill.

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timesofindia.indiatimes.com · 2 days ago

Boom at the front, bust at home: Russia’s war economy is holding but its people are cracking - The Times of India

By 2024, Russia appeared to have defied expectations. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, the economy grew by 4.9%, unemployment fell to record lows, and factories linked to the defence sector ran around the clock.

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nytimes.com · 3 days ago

The 20-Somethings Running Ukraine’s War Machine - The New York Times

A new generation has been cutting red tape to speed weapons to the front. But the old guard pushed back, and now Ukraine’s young defense minister is out.

Read source