Silfio country intelligence · MUS
Mauritius
0.6% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
1.24M
GDP
$16.16B
Currency
MUR
Capital
Port Louis
Land area
2.04K km²
Official languages
English, French, Mauritian Creole
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Mauritius faces a 0.6% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, representing a minimal risk. The country has a long record of political stability, functioning institutions, and no sustained civil war or insurgency since independence in 1968. Its relatively strong state capacity and isolated island geography also constrain the ability of armed groups or external forces to establish themselves.
Recent reporting describes rare violent protests, with more than 100 people arrested and a curfew extended across roughly a third of the island. The principal actors are the Mauritian authorities and protesters; the reporting does not indicate organized armed factions, territorial control, or foreign military involvement.
The main uncertainty is whether unrest remains episodic and protest-driven or develops into sustained, organized armed violence. Evidence of armed groups, attacks on security forces, or prolonged territorial seizures would raise risk, while the lifting of curfews alongside a return to predominantly peaceful demonstrations would support continued stability. No prediction market was available.
Strategic reasoning
- Mauritius’s stable institutions, state capacity, and absence of sustained post-independence insurgency or civil war make a new armed conflict unusually difficult to organize, despite a history of occasional communal and political unrest.
- The curfew and mass arrests show significant domestic disorder, but current reporting identifies protest violence rather than an organized armed campaign. Effective security control is the clearest stabilising factor.
- The relevant risk is a new conflict on Mauritius itself; unrest there matters, while no separate foreign war involving Mauritian forces is reported.
Critical indicators
- In recent reporting, Mauritius extended a curfew across roughly one-third of the island after violent protests, indicating an acute internal-order challenge requiring broad security measures.
- More than 100 people were arrested during the same episode. The scale confirms serious unrest, but the reported actors remain protesters and state authorities rather than insurgent or rival armed organisations.
Probability trend
How the Mauritius estimate has moved
Probability0.6%0.6%0.6%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Mauritius.
Regional context
Mauritius compared with its neighbours and region
Mauritius ranks number 131 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage