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Silfio country intelligence · NZL
New Zealand
0.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.32M
GDP
$264.06B
Currency
NZD
Capital
Wellington
Land area
270.47K km²
Official languages
English, Māori, New Zealand Sign Language
Risk assessment
Risk profile
New Zealand’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Its long record of internal peace, stable democratic institutions, effective security services, high state capacity, and geographic isolation strongly constrain the emergence of sustained domestic or interstate violence.
Recent reporting reviewed is dominated by routine sporting activity, including the New Zealand Breakers’ scheduled basketball match against Tasmania’s JackJumpers. It identifies no mobilisation, armed-group activity, political violence, or external military pressure involving New Zealand; no principal armed actors are evident.
The main uncertainty is the possibility of an isolated extremist attack or an unexpected external crisis developing faster than institutions can contain it, although neither is indicated in the reporting reviewed. Risk would rise most clearly with organised domestic armed violence, a serious breakdown in political order, or a foreign attack reaching New Zealand; continued institutional stability and the absence of such developments would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- New Zealand has no recent pattern of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate fighting on its territory. Strong institutions, capable governance, and geographic distance from major conflict theatres make sustained armed mobilisation difficult.
- The current reporting provides no escalation signal: the dated coverage concerns a basketball fixture between Tasmania and the New Zealand Breakers. This is context only and does not indicate a new conflict onset.
Critical indicators
- The reported Sunday fixture between Tasmania’s JackJumpers and the New Zealand Breakers reflects ordinary cross-Tasman sporting engagement, with no security or political violence dimension.
- No prediction market was available for New Zealand, and no dated reporting reviewed identified armed groups, military mobilisation, or external threats reaching New Zealand. Its established record of domestic stability remains the relevant supporting country factor.
Probability trend
How the New Zealand estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in New Zealand.
Regional context
New Zealand compared with its neighbours and region
New Zealand ranks number 177 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Australia and New Zealand
- Australia0.2%
- New Zealand0.2%
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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