New Zealand

New Zealand’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 0.1%, a minimal risk. The country has strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective policing, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or interstate fighting on its territory. Its geographic isolation and stable democratic governance further constrain pathways to organised armed conflict.

Recent reporting reviewed concerns the South Africa–New Zealand rugby series, including the third Test between the Springboks and All Blacks, rather than military, political, or security tensions. No prediction markets were available for New Zealand. The principal relevant state actors remain New Zealand’s government and security services; there is no reported armed group or neighbouring state currently pursuing violence against New Zealand territory.

The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen domestic extremist incident, political rupture, or external crisis could generate sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organised attacks, armed mobilisation, a breakdown in state authority, or a direct military confrontation reaching New Zealand; continued institutional stability and the absence of such developments would support the current minimal-risk assessment.