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Silfio country intelligence

New Zealand

Minimal risk0.4% annual probabilitystable trend
New Zealand flag

New Zealand facts

Population

5.32M

GDP

$264.06B

Currency

NZD

Capital

Wellington

Land area

270.47K km²

Official languages

English, Māori, New Zealand Sign Language

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of New Zealand

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.4%

Model base probability

0.3%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • Prediction markets focus exclusively on the 2026 New Zealand prime minister election outcomes, with no direct market on armed conflict risk; thus, they provide no direct signal on conflict onset probability.
  • News coverage indicates heightened global geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating US-Iran conflict and regional instability in the Middle East, but no direct threats or indications of armed conflict on New Zealand soil.
  • Domestic New Zealand news references historical trauma from past conflicts and ongoing political challenges but no signs of imminent internal armed conflict or coup risk.
  • The structural model’s baseline probability is very low (0.3174%), but given the global rise in geopolitical tensions and the potential for spillover effects or indirect impacts, a modest upward adjustment is warranted to reflect increased uncertainty and risk.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran military conflict with attacks on US assets in the Middle East.
  • Historical conflict remembrance in New Zealand (Waerenga-a-Hika) highlighting past trauma but no current conflict onset.

Related coverage

Latest articles about New Zealand

Updated July 20, 2026

fxstreet.com · 3 days ago

New Zealand Dollar rises amid sticky inflation fears, escalating Middle East tensions | FXStreet

NZD/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds its ground following the release of the country's latest food price data.

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cnbc.com · 2 days ago

Iraq and Syria sign agreement to restore oil pipeline that would provide alternative to Strait of Hormuz

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is visiting the U.S. this week. He met with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

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newsroom.co.nz · 7 hours ago

The six-day battle that changed a region forever - Newsroom

Today from The Detail: Inside the story of Waerenga-a-Hika - a forgotten war, generations of trauma, and a history finally being told

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